ProSiebenSat.1 (PSM) has published preliminary FY23 figures. With revenues of c. EUR 1.28bn in the important fourth quarter, PSM achieved only marginal growth of <1% yoy. In FY 2023, revenues stood at c. EUR 3.85bn (-7.5% yoy) and therefore below PSM’s guidance, and also below AlsterResearch’s expectations of EUR 3.93bn. Nevertheless, PSM increased adjusted (adj.) EBITDA by 11% and hence, PSM exceeded its own earnings expectations, helped by various smaller one-off effects. PSM is now specifying its outlook to stable FY24 adj. EBITDA vs. the previous year's level, but now from the higher base of EUR 575m and with a variance of +/- EUR 50m, resulting in a range of EUR 525-625m instead of the previous guidance of EUR 550m. PSM values its guidance update as an increase, but in fact it is simply a wider corridor, both to the up- and downside. With only fine-tuning AlsterResearch’s model assumptions, AlsterResearch derives at a slightly higher PT of EUR 5.30 (old EUR 5.10.), which is why the rating remains SELL. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/ProSiebenSat.1%20Media%20SE

Today, Delivery Hero (DH) provided more detailed preliminary figures as well as additional information, including debt repayment in the coming years. The preliminary release contained a number of details that gave investors valuable insights on the company’s progress on improving earnings quality, which includes stricter cost control, while shifting less mature, unprofitable markets towards profitability. Most notably, DH gave an overview of its debt situation. While this represents a major hurdle with regard to the company’s many years of burning through cash, it underpinned the management’s confidence to generate an organic cash flow that exceeds upcoming maturities. AlsterResearch’s analysts confirm their PT and BUY with unchanged estimates. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Delivery%20Hero%20SE

Portfolio update // NAV carried by key holding Topic: While Conscious Good ceased operations, 029 sold one of its holdings, Emerald Stay for € 1.6m, a multiple of 2.7x on its invested capital. The group's NAV is now mainly carried by Limestone Capital and TRIP. Conscious Good. CG was expected to launch a nootropics-based consumer product [ … ]

With full speed into 2024 After two years of delivering significant EBIT growth, we expect Multitude to continue on its growth path and remain on track to meet the new guidance for FY26 of € 30m net income. Here is why: Demand for loans to remain undebatable high. According to a survey of EY, consumer loans and corporate loans in the Eur [ … ]

Portfolio update // NAV carried by key holding Topic: While Conscious Good ceased operations, 029 sold one of its holdings, Emerald Stay for € 1.6m, a multiple of 2.7x on its invested capital. The group's NAV is now mainly carried by Limestone Capital and TRIP. Conscious Good. CG was expected to launch a nootropics-based consumer product [ … ]

With full speed into 2024 After two years of delivering significant EBIT growth, we expect Multitude to continue on its growth path and remain on track to meet the new guidance for FY26 of € 30m net income. Here is why: Demand for loans to remain undebatable high. According to a survey of EY, consumer loans and corporate loans in the Eur [ … ]

Back in October, Gerresheimer's (GXI) Q3 figures fell slightly short of expectations, largely driven by destocking effects from pharmaceutical customers. These effects have carried over into 2024, additionally impacted by softer demand due to a comparatively weak flu season. Another factor that can cause road bumps is the price of resins, an essential raw material for plastic packaging. The headwinds will have a negative impact on the first half of the year, although this is most likely to be only a temporary effect. The long-term growth drivers remain intact. With adjusted forecasts, AlsterResearch’s analysts set the price target at EUR 120.00 (old: EUR 125.00) and confirm their BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Gerresheimer%20AG

Cancom has released preliminary figures for FY23. Sales rose by 17.8% yoy to EUR 1,52bn, which is slightly below AlsterResearch’s and consensus expectations, but within the company’s own guidance (EUR 1.52-1.58bn). However, Cancom's growth in H2 ‘23 was attributable to the consolidation of KBC Beteiligungs GmbH. Assuming an imputed consolidation contribution of EUR 304m (eAR) for the last seven months ‘23, Cancom’s revenue excluding M&A should have been only EUR 1.22bn (eAR). As a result, Cancom's operating business shrank by 5.7% yoy in ‘23. Considering that Cancom is only growing through acquisitions, this remains a cause for concern. Competitors are achieving growth rates of 7% yoy, which is above the market growth (bitkom: 6.1% in 2023). In the view of AlsterResearch’s experts, the upside potential remains limited. Taking preliminary figures into AlsterResearch’s model, the analysts derive at a slightly lower PT of EUR 29.00 (old EUR 29.60). The rating remains HOLD. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Cancom%20SE

tk nucera reported Q1 23/24 revenues of EUR 208m, up c. 35% yoy, and a negative EBIT of EUR -0.9m (Q1 22/23 EUR 11m), with the result weighed down by product mix and higher development costs in the fast-growing water electrolysis business. It is important to note that the main driver of tk nucera's equity story is the execution of the company's substantial order backlog of EUR 1.34bn, down c. -8% yoy. However, as it is common in the project business for order intake to be volatile, this is not too worrying. Moreover, a lucrative long-term service contract for major projects such as the one in Saudi Arabia is expected to be signed in the near future. However, AlsterResearch’s analysts have lowered their margin expectations for the coming years and reiterate the BUY rating with a revised PT of EUR 20.00, implying an upside of 28%. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/thyssenkrupp%20nucera%20AG%20&%20Co%20KGaA

TUI reported robust FQ1 results, growing 15% yoy and surpassing consensus revenue expectations by 6%. Growth was driven by all segments, particularly Cruises and Musement. Notably, TUI achieved its first-ever positive FQ1 underlying EBIT, significantly exceeding consensus forecasts, propelled by improvements in both Holiday Experiences and Markets & Airlines. Booking and pricing momentum remained favorable, with Winter 23/24 and Summer 24 bookings up 8% yoy and ASPs up 4%. Additionally, S&P upgraded TUI's credit rating from B to B+ with a positive outlook, highlighting the company's higher revenues, lower leverage, margin accretive strategy and potential dividend payments from the cruise joint venture. AlsterResearch confirms the BUY recommendation with a price target of EUR 16.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/TUI%20AG