NuWays AG: MLP SE | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 08.03.2024
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Comeback of RE and performance fees around the corner; chg.
Topic: MLP released FY'23 preliminary results and suprised positively with
Q4's better than expected real
estate business. MLP also looks set to record performance fees in Q1 for
the first time since 2021.
Q4 sales in line with estimates: Sales rose by 5% yoy to € 289m (eNuW: € 294m) with a strong impact from Old-Age Provision (€ 90m, 31% of sales; eNuW: € 102m), but also strong growth from Interest Income (€ 20.3m, +133% yoy; eNuW: € 19.6m), Non-Life Insurance (€ 39m, +22% yoy; eNuW: € 42m) as well as Wealth Management (€ 80m, +4% yoy; eNuW: € 91m). Surprisingly, the negative trend in Real Estate could be stopped, as Q4 RE sales came in much better than expected at € 26.2m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: € 5.1m), thanks to both Brokerage (€ 11.1m, +62.4% yoy; eNuW: € 3.5m) and Development (€ 15m; flat yoy; eNuW: € 1.6m).
Q4 EBIT in line with previously released PW: The positive impact from the interest result (€ 12.8m; +64% yoy; eNuW: € 13.5m) led to an overall Q4 EBIT of € 25.4m, up 9% yoy, while it was also burdened by a one-off goodwill impairment on a real estate subsidiary of € 4m.
FY'24e guidance conservative: The company guides for an EBIT range of €
75-85m (eNuW: € 89m; eCons: € 88m) for FY'24e, based on positive outlooks
in Wealth as well as Life & Health. Upside could emerge from 1) a potential
rebound in Real Estate (company guides 'very positively'), which was
already visible during Q4'23, and 2) highly profitable performance fees
which seem to be likely in Q1'24e already. Both of FERI's largest public
funds (EquityFlex & Optoflex) currently exceed the threshold to be eligible
for performance fees and the record day (March 31st, last day of Q1) is
close. Against this backdrop, management seems to guide conservatively, in
our view.
Mid-term targets confirmed: By Y/E'25e, MLP aims to achieve an EBIT in the
range of € 100-110m, based on its diversified business mix coupled with
continous growth and efficiency gains. This would imply an EBIT 23-'25e
CAGR of 19-25%.
Overall, MLP's stock is too cheap to ignore at current levels, trading at historically low multiples. The SDAX uplisting on March 18th should also support the stock's trading volumes and visibility. Hence, we reiterate BUY and confirm MLP in the NuWay's Alpha List with unchanged PT of € 11.00, based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29099.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
