tonies announced a robust 20.3% year-over-year growth in Q1 2024, with revenues reaching EUR 78.3m, slightly ahead of market expectations. Despite a slower growth rate compared to the full-year target of 33% due to supply chain disruptions and a strong previous year base in the US, non-DACH markets, especially North America and Rest of World, led the expansion with notable growth rates of 47% and 49% respectively. tonies has confirmed its 2024 guidance, expecting revenues of at least EUR 480m and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 6% and 8%, alongside a positive free cash flow of EUR 10m. Maintaining a positive outlook, mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with an unchanged price target of EUR 8.70, reflecting a solid performance across key markets and product categories. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

tonies outperformed expectations in its FY23 final results, reporting profitability and cash flow figures ahead of both mwb research’s and the market's forecasts. With an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.0% vs. consensus of 2.5% and free cash flow of EUR -5m vs. expectations of EUR -29m, the company delivered solid results. The positive outlook for FY24 includes expectations for revenues of at least EUR 480m, with a significant contribution from North America, driven by increased points of sale and expanded shelf space. The guidance of an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 6% to 8% and a positive free cash flow of EUR 10m in FY24 adds to the optimism. In addition, tonies reported segment profitability in the mature DACH region with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, setting a benchmark for other markets. As a result, mwb research’s analysts raise their estimates and target price to EUR 8.70 (old: EUR 7.70). BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

tonies hosted a conference call today to introduce the new CEO Tobias Wann to analysts. Tobias succeeds co-founders Patric Faßbender and Marcus Stahl, who have stepped down from their roles but will remain shareholders and advisors. With 20 years of executive experience, Tobias brings expertise in scaling platform businesses internationally, demonstrated through his previous roles at VeriSign, HomeAway, @Leisure Group, OYO and Xempus. AlsterResearch’s analysts believe his background makes him well suited to lead tonies' further growth. AlsterResearch reiterates the BUY rating on tonies with an unchanged target price of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

tonies reported preliminary FY23 and Q4 revenues that exceeded expectations. The outstanding performance was driven by very strong US sales, which reached EUR 78m in Q4, representing a 92% year-on-year growth rate, despite competitors' warnings of a weak Christmas season. Conversely, the DACH region declined by 6% in Q4, indicating a mature market, while the Rest of the World (RoW) showed strong growth of +63% yoy, driven by the UK and France. tonies reaffirmed its positive adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for FY23, suggesting consistent target achievement. Keeping our estimates unchanged, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with a price target of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

Hasbro announced this week that it will cut 17% of its workforce, citing stronger and more sustained headwinds in the toy market than anticipated. This follows recent warnings of a weak holiday season from both Hasbro and Mattel. While both companies paint a bleak picture for the state of the toy market, AlsterResearch’s analysts believe this has limited relevance for tonies. For tonies, growth is being driven by product launches and, in particular, an increasing POS presence in the U.S., which dominates cyclical issues. In addition, the category of interactive audio platforms for kids has so far been uncorrelated with the overall toy market. Therefore, AlsterResearch still expects tonies to achieve its guidance of EUR 354m sales and positive adj. EBITDA in FY23, with US sales growth of 38% yoy in Q4. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with an unchanged price target of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

In Q3, tonies reported strong performance with a 46% yoy revenue growth, up from 25% in Q2. The DACH region surprised positively with 21% growth after a negative Q2. Main driver once again was the US market with triple-digit growth (109% yoy), benefiting from increased point-of-sale presence. The FY23 guidance of EUR 354m sales and positive EBITDA was confirmed. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate to BUY with an unchanged price target of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

tonies is scheduled to report Q3 revenues on November 11. AlsterResearch’s analysts expect tonies to report healthy year-on-year growth of around 37% in Q3, rebounding from a subdued Q2 growth rate of 25%. The DACH region is expected to return to growth of around 9% in Q3 after a negative reading in Q2, mainly due to a base effect as consumer confidence was extremely depressed in Q3 22. The US market should continue to show triple-digit growth, benefiting from an increasing presence in Target and Walmart stores. tonies is on track to achieve its full-year sales guidance, and AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate to BUY with an unchanged price target of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE