Shares of United Internet (UI) and its subsidiary 1&1 AG rose sharply (+11% since Friday) following a report by El Español that Telefónica is discussing a potential acquisition of 1&1. The rumored valuation of EUR 4.5 - 5.0bn implies a multiple on 2024 EBITDA of c. 8x. While the speculation targets 1&1, UI holds ~80% and would be directly impacted. The rally reflects perceived valuation support and potential deleveraging. However, there is no confirmation, transaction structure, or regulatory clarity. Given 1&1’s central role in UI’s telecom exposure, ownership changes would materially alter the group profile. We view the move as event-driven and reiterate HOLD with an unchanged EUR 30.00 PT. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/united-internet-ag

Company Name: EPH Group AG ISIN: AT0000A34DM3   Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 102 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald EPH enters Germany with two lakefront projects EPH announced a principal agreement to acquire two premium hotel developments a [ … ]

EDAG is a leading independent engineering services provider with strong automotive roots and a growing presence in defense and industrial markets, where its automotive expertise is a key advantage. Its business spans the full vehicle lifecycle, driven by automotive OEM R&D programs as the main source of project orders. Dependence on European OEMs, covering almost all major players, is mitigated by strong client relationships and proven expertise, while long-term growth is supported by electrification, software integration, and automation. An expected renewed R&D spending cycle by European OEMs, combined with diversification, such as into the growing defense industry, overseas capacity shifts, and workforce restructuring, supports the mid-term outlook. Furthermore, trading at a historically wide discount, the stock offers significant upside once the negative automotive R&D cycle rebounds, as it always has. We initiate with a BUY rating and a PT of EUR 6.50, implying upside of 69%. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/edag-engineering-group-ag

BASF released detailed 2025 results that were in line with its preliminary numbers. Revenues (excluding discontinued operations) declined 5.6% yoy to EUR 14.03bn and adj. EBITDA fell 27.9% yoy to EUR 1.03bn in Q4, as operational weakness persisted in the upstream business, with pricing and FX headwinds and still depressed volumes. On the positive side, FCF in FY25 improved materially from EUR 0.75bn to EUR 1.34bn, beating expectations by around 37%, driven by lower investment outlays and a material contribution from Wintershall Dea. Management expects demand to remain subdued in the near-term and guides for adj. EBITDA of EUR 6.2bn-7.0bn for 2026 (flat yoy at the mid-point) and FCF of EUR 1.5bn-2.3bn (2025: EUR 1.3bn) on reduced capex and one-offs. Net, we see the near-term earnings softness (pricing/FX) increasingly counterbalanced by tangible capital discipline, cost execution, and value crystallization in the stand-alone businesses. That said, the key risk to the call remains a longer-than-expected upstream margin trough in Europe amid competitiveness/Emissions Trading System uncertainties and delayed demand normalization. As the share price approaching our fair value, we downgrade from BUY to HOLD with unchanged price target at EUR 52.00, implying roughly 9.5x EV/adj EBITDA. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/basf-se

Middle East exposure is immaterial for HENSOLDT and does not change the equity story. Regional defense budgets are well below EU and US levels, with spending in key markets such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE largely directed toward US supplied air and missile defence. Israel primarily sources from domestic champions including Elbit Systems (ESLT:IT) and Israel Aerospace Industries. We estimate HENSOLDT’s revenue exposure to the region at ~3 % of sales. While HENSOLDT supplies the TRML 4D radar for IRIS T SLM via Diehl Defence, we see no confirmed regional orders and limited near term probability given US incumbency from Raytheon Technologies (RTX:US) and Lockheed Martin (LMT:US). Therefore, financial impact should be negligible. Any share price reaction is likely sentiment driven. Structural upside remains tied to German and European rearmament. PT EUR 57.00, SELL. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/hensoldt-ag

Cicor will report FY25 results on 5 March. We see limited downside risk to our FY25 estimates after the January guidance reset following the terminated TT acquisition. Cicor highlighted CHF 10m in one-offs for 2025, cutting reported EBITDA guidance to CHF 53-57m, while adjusted EBITDA remains CHF 63-67m (mwb est. CHF 65m). Also, we refreshed FY26/27 assumptions to reflect CHF strength versus EUR, creating a translation headwind, while ramp-up and integration effects (largely related to Éolane) back-end load the margin build into Q4 and 2027. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised PT of CHF 185.00 (old: CHF 200.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/cicor-technologies-ltd

The Iran escalation does not materially change RENK’s near term earnings profile in our view. Regional defense budgets are meaningful in absolute terms but small relative to Europe and the US, and RENK’s direct exposure is concentrated in Israel at low single digit revenue contribution (4% of revenues based on mwb research est.). At the same time, the current conflict is dominated by drones and missiles rather than heavy tracked platforms, which limits immediate operational upside. Only a sustained shift toward large scale ground operations with tracked vehicles would meaningfully change our assumptions. Until then, the investment case remains driven by European NATO land programs rather than the Middle East. HOLD, PT 53.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/renk-group-ag

The Middle East escalation is as of now a sentiment tailwind for TKMS, but the fundamental upside remains in the long-term. Regional budgets are well below EU/US equipment spending and current demand is centered on drones, missiles and air defense, not naval newbuilds. Still, longer dated upside is building as complex conventional submarines are a scarce supply market with limited global prime capacity and no credible local submarine prime across MENA, while recent industrial cooperation suggests TKMS can meet localisation demands without giving up system control. Israel is the clearest linkage after the new Elbit-TKMS MoD components facility, supporting deeper offsets and lifecycle work and keeping upside for additional Dakar class boats in the 2030s (subject to approvals). Saudi Arabia is the main upside lever but remains early stage. We maintain BUY and our EUR 125.00 price target; political and export licensing remains the key risk factor. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tkms-ag-co-kgaa

TUI shares have fallen steeply on Iran-war concerns, but the near-term impact looks contained. TUI has cancelled early-March sailings for Mein Schiff 4 (Abu Dhabi) and Mein Schiff 5 (Doha) due to missile activity and airspace closures, and there are some airport logistics issues in Dubai/Doha. However, core summer volumes are mainly Western Med and Turkey, which are unaffected for now. If disruption stays in March and normalizes in April, the financial hit should be small, we estimate about EUR 50m lost revenue and EUR 25m less EBIT. The bigger risk is a longer, wider conflict that scares travelers away from Turkey (~20% of summer volume) or Egypt (~5%), though some demand may shift to perceived safer Western Med destinations like Spain. For now, we see FY26 guidance (2–4% revenue growth; 7–10% EBIT growth) as intact and reiterate our BUY rating with EUR 16.00 PT. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tui-ag

The Middle East escalation is unlikely to translate into a material earnings driver for Rheinmetall in the mid-term. While regional defense budgets are sizeable, they remain structurally oriented toward US-supplied air and missile defense systems, with Israel largely sourcing domestically. Rheinmetall’s current revenue exposure to the region is limited and its core strength in heavy land systems is not directly aligned with the dominant system types in the conflict, which is primarily driven by drones and missiles (as of now). Potential upside could stem from their short-range air defense (Skyranger) for infrastructure protection. However, we do not expect this to become a meaningful short-term catalyst without operational validation from the Ukraine and export clarity. At this stage, the escalation may provide temporary sentiment support, but we see no reason to adjust our estimates. The structural investment case remains anchored in European rearmament and capacity ramp ups. PT unchanged at EUR 2,000. BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/rheinmetall-ag