Company Name: Shelly Group SE ISIN: BG1100003166   Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Buy from: 15.04.2026 Target price: 79.00 EUR Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: - Analyst: Bastian Brach Preliminary Q1 Results Surprise to the Upside Shelly reported a strong start to the year with preliminar [ … ]

We expect SUSS to report a weak Q1 marking the trough, with revenue around EUR 95m (-20% qoq) and EBIT around break-even, reflecting the lagged impact of weak 2025 order intake, low volumes, and continued ramp and R&D costs. However, underlying fundamentals are improving, with order intake expected above EUR 130m (+10% qoq), driven by strong AI-related demand (HBM/CoWoS) and follow-on orders. We expect this order momentum to sustain into Q2 onwards, creating scope to narrow the full-year guidance corridor upward. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target to EUR 70.00 (from EUR 61.00), reflecting growing confidence in the order recovery and medium-term growth trajectory. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/suss-microtec-se

HMS Bergbau reported preliminary FY2025 revenues of EUR 1.22bn, missing guidance of ~EUR 1.5bn on lower coal prices, while volumes remained broadly stable. The implied operating EBITDA of EUR 22.4m was roughly in line with our estimates, with reported EBITDA of EUR 59.4m inflated by a EUR 37m IFRS consolidation effect from Maatla. According to management, Q1 2026 has started well, with both mines ramping to their planned capacity by mid-May and cash returns expected from Q3. Marine fuels seem able to navigate Middle East disruptions (Strait of Hormuz!). Management abstained from formal guidance given geopolitical uncertainty. So far, commodity markets provide a constructive foundation for our estimates, which remain subject to revision upon publication of audited figures. We maintain our EUR 70.00 PT and BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/hms-bergbau-ag

Ernst Russ is diversifying its fleet by acquiring four IMO II chemical and product tankers with five-year fixed charters, adding USD 126m to its backlog. The total investment is estimated at approx. EUR 120m (USD 140m), likely financed with a typical 30% equity tranche (mwb est.). Remarkably, the secured charter backlog of USD 126m covers a significant portion of the total investment, effectively "pre-earning" the acquisition costs. This move reduces reliance on the container market and enhances long-term cash flow visibility starting in 2027. In our view, this "de-risked" expansion strengthens the company's valuation basis and supports a stable dividend outlook. BUY, with new PT of EUR 13.50 (previously EUR 12.50) after updating Ernst Russ’ fleet and our forecasts. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/ernst-russ-ag

Company Name: tonies SE ISIN: LU2333563281   Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 14.5 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Christian Sandherr tonies fires on all cylinders; PT Up tonies released final FY25 figures and its FY26 guidance, underpinning the company’s [ … ]

AIXTRON delivered a weak but expected Q1 on earnings, offset by clearly stronger-than-expected order intake driven by optoelectronics, prompting a FY26 guidance upgrade and confirming an early-cycle photonics ramp. We believe the strength in optoelectronics is likely to continue. While this improves near-term visibility and de-risks execution, our broader concerns around delayed SiC recovery and the timing of AI GaN orders remain unchanged. Meanwhile, we see valuation as increasingly stretched already pricing in a strong and smooth recovery into 2027–2028, making risk-reward unfavorable at these levels. We maintain our SELL rating with a higher price target of EUR 33.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/aixtron-se

At our German Select Conference, Drägerwerk’s (Dräger) Head of IR, Thomas Fischler, confirmed Dräger’s strategic pivot toward profitability, targeting a mid-term EBIT margin of ~10% supported by pricing, cost discipline, and portfolio optimization. FY 2025 delivered record sales of EUR 3.48bn and EBIT of EUR 233m (6.7% margin), despite substantial headwinds from FX (approx. EUR -45m) and tariffs (approx. EUR -25m). Both divisions showed operational improvement, with Safety remaining the key margin driver. Guidance for 2026 implies continued progress but short-term volatility. Overall, the structural margin story remains intact. A video of the presentation is available on https://research-hub.de/events. We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged price target of EUR 108.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/draegerwerk-ag-co-kgaa

At the mwb German Select Conference, Verbio’s Head of IR Alina Köhler highlighted recent developments and the company’s outlook. She noted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions, supply chain issues, and Europe’s dependence on energy imports continue to drive volatility in energy markets, while structural decarbonisation demand remains strong. Verbio benefits from this due to short-term energy security needs and long-term structural tailwinds driven by decarbonisation, supported by favourable regulatory frameworks for renewable fuels. Recent performance was mainly influenced by external regulatory distortions in the European CO₂ market rather than operational weakness, while volume growth and early EBITDA recovery indicate improving momentum. Looking ahead, demand strength, regulatory normalisation in Europe, the US ramp-up, efficiency gains, and higher GHG quota prices support the outlook. We therefore reiterate our BUY and PT of EUR 50.00. The Roundtable recording is available here: https://research-hub.de/events The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/verbio-se

tonies delivered strong FY25 results, confirming preliminary upbeat figures with revenue up 36%, driven by international expansion (North America +40%, Rest of World +68%), while DACH still grew solidly (+16%). Growth was supported by the successful launch of Toniebox 2 and the scalable razor-blade model, with Tonies figurine sales surging ~41% units versus ~8% box growth. Profitability improved meaningfully, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 8.6% (+110bps), led by operating leverage and product mix. Net profit lagged expectations due to a non-cash warrant revaluation, while free cash flow turned negative due to a temporary inventory build for new launches. Looking ahead, tonies guides 20% FY26 revenue growth and further margin expansion, in line with our estimates. We confirm our BUY rating with unchanged price target of EUR 14.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tonies-se

Cicor's Q1 2026 business update showed meaningful headwinds. Organic decline of 6%, temporary supply chain constraints and an -4.8% FX drag, more than offset by acquisition-driven revenue growth of 33.4%. Order intake of CHF 196.4m and a book-to-bill of 1.22x provide constructive H2 visibility, supported by new A&D customer wins including Kongsberg. In H2 2026, organic growth is largely secured through existing framework agreements and binding orders. Full-year guidance of CHF 700-750m revenue and adjusted EBITDA of CHF 70-80m was confirmed, with organic recovery in H2 the critical swing factor for delivery. We make modest adjustments to our 2026 estimates and maintain our price target of CHF 180.00 and BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/cicor-technologies-ltd