Positive traffic results; guidance too conservative; chg. est. Yesterday, FWAG released March '24 traffic results ahead of our estimates: In March, group passenger numbers rose by 12% yoy to 2.88m (eNuW: 2.80m). Vienna (VIE) grew by 8% yoy to 2.21m passengers (eNuW: 2.21m) despite the strike by Austrian Airlines' employees at the end of the m [ … ]

Remaining in pole position for market reopening / chg. UBM released final FY 2023 results which were in line with the preliminary figures published in March. FY sales came in at € 85.3m (eNuW: € 87.9m), implying a yoy decline of 36%. This is again mainly explained by the ongoing weakness of the real estate transaction market, which re [ … ]

Enapter has announced Q1 '24 order intake of c. EUR 9.3m (+730% yoy), which is exactly in line with mwb research’s expectations. Of these orders, c. EUR 7m were for multi-core systems and c. EUR 2.3m for single-core systems, an increase driven not only by the new multicore systems (mid-23 launch) but also by single-core systems. There is a lot of test buying going on currently, 60% of new orders are from new customers for single or small multi-core systems. The second factor is that Enapter's sales strategy seems to be working, with EUR 1.5m of the order intake already coming from the US general distributor CleanH2 Inc. mwb research’s analysts expect order intake to continue to accelerate during the year, partly as a result of the fact that many customers should now have moved beyond the test phase, and also as a result of the sales strategy with country-specific distributors (US and China). The company's growth should really take off with the start of mass production in '25, with the order base established in '24. mwb research’s analysts confirm their BUY rating with a PT of 22.50. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Enapter%20AG

tonies outperformed expectations in its FY23 final results, reporting profitability and cash flow figures ahead of both mwb research’s and the market's forecasts. With an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.0% vs. consensus of 2.5% and free cash flow of EUR -5m vs. expectations of EUR -29m, the company delivered solid results. The positive outlook for FY24 includes expectations for revenues of at least EUR 480m, with a significant contribution from North America, driven by increased points of sale and expanded shelf space. The guidance of an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 6% to 8% and a positive free cash flow of EUR 10m in FY24 adds to the optimism. In addition, tonies reported segment profitability in the mature DACH region with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, setting a benchmark for other markets. As a result, mwb research’s analysts raise their estimates and target price to EUR 8.70 (old: EUR 7.70). BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/tonies%20SE

Staige One ("Staige") has sealed another major partnership with ClipMyHorse.TV, a leader in live equestrian event broadcasting. Over a five-year period, ClipMyHorse.TV will purchase a minimum of 100 camera systems from Staige for use in Germany, Europe, and the USA. The contract, which is expected to generate single-digit million EUR revenues, will run until 2028. The first 25 cameras are being installed this month. In view of mwb research, the potential for upselling additional services such as training recordings or analytical evaluations is even more promising and could open up additional multimillion Euro revenue potential. This agreement follows Staige's recent partnership in China, demonstrating the quality of its technology and potentially expanding its market reach. mwb research maintains their BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 6.50 and see their investment thesis confirmed as Staige is an innovative technology disruptor in amateur sports with AI-driven camera systems. The full update can be found under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Staige%20One%20AG

As expected, Gerresheimer’s Q1 showed destocking headwinds that slowed down top- and bottom-line growth to a low single-digit percentage range as customers reduced glass vial inventories during the past quarters. This resulted in a 11% yoy organic decline of the Primary Packaging Glass segment, which, however, was compensated by strong business of Plastics & Devices. With the destocking effect regularly decreasing over the next few months and the ramp-up of new lines kicking in, the management expects a strong H2. With unchanged estimates, mwb research confirms the PT and BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Gerresheimer%20AG

This week, at mwb research’s German Small Cap Select Conference, Metro AG’s Senior IR Manager, Anastasiia Kalihuzna, provided a summary and update on “sCore”, Metro’s mid- and long-term growth strategy. Introduced 2 years ago, sCore targets an increase of the share of professional customers (HoReCa and Traders). At the same, the key channels, which are stores, food service distribution (FSD) and the online marketplace, are being enhanced and expanded. By 2030, Metro aims for sales of EUR 40bn with an EBITDA of EUR 2bn, and EUR 0.6bn+ for FCF. Despite some progress, it is clear that Metro still has way to go to reach its ambitious targets. However, mwb research’s analysts expect that further substantial progress should drive forecast increases and a re-rating. mwb’s analysts maintain their BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Metro%20AG

Based on the strong oil price performance and the high productivity of the Wyoming wells, Deutsche Rohstoff has expanded its drilling program and now plans to invest between EUR 145m and EUR 165m in FY24 compared to the previous guidance of EUR 110m. Accordingly, the company has increased its FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance by more than 20%. mwb research’s analysts upgrade their estimates and arrive at a new PT of EUR 56.70 (old: EUR 52.00), based on a DCF and supported by a discount to peers of more than 50% on EV/EBITDA and PER. mwb analysts reiterate their BUY recommendation. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Deutsche%20Rohstoff%20AG

Cancom presented on mwb research’s German Small Cap Select conference, a quarterly conference format of stock listed gems in Germany. Cancom's Investor Relations team gave a presentation highlighting Cancom's strong positioning in its markets. Despite industry challenges due to subdued demand from German Mittelstand, the company expects an acceleration in orders in the second half of the year, as customer demand for IT service providers continues to rise. Margin expansion is expected in FY24, with gross margin and EBIT margin expected to improve. Following the completed share buyback program, Cancom holds 1.7m treasury shares (c. 4.55% of shares capital), which mwb research’s analysts expect to be cancelled as well. Doing the math, this increases the EPS for the remaining shares as well as mwb research’s DCF-based price target to EUR 33.00 (old EUR 31.00) Remains a BUY. A replay of the presentation is available at https://research-hub.de/events. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Cancom%20SE

Sales and earnings in line with expectations; “CENIT 2025” confirmed and further growth expected for 2024; Acquisitions to take place shortly   With total annual sales of € 184.72 million (previous year: € 162.15 million), CENIT AG slightly exceeded both its own guidance (approx. € 180 million) and our previous est [ … ]