Performance One (PO1) has released its final figures for H1 23, which match the prelim. results published earlier. AlsterResearch also hosted an earnings call with board member Denis Lademann. A recall can be found on www.research-hub.de/events. In H1 ‘23, PO1 generated stable revenue of EUR 5.8m, compared to EUR 5.9m in H1 22. Still, EBITDA improved noticeably by EUR 0.9m thanks to strict cost discipline. The FY23 forecast has been confirmed in line with current developments. In addition, the company released upbeat mid-term targets for the first time, expecting sales to increase to EUR 78m by ‘27 at an attractive EBITDA margin of 26%. These targets imply a steep growth trajectory and are significantly above AlsterResearch’s expectations. However, given the early stage of the e-health services, AlsterResearch’s analysts consider it too early to raise their expectations towards these goals. Still, they consider the ambitious targets as positive as it also reflects a truly positive market environment. AlsterResearch reiterates to BUY with unchanged PT of EUR 15.50. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Performance%20One%20AG

ProSiebenSat1’s (PSM’s) Q3 revenues were in line with consensus, while adjusted (adj.) EBITDA came in 3% ahead. The high-margin TV advertising business continued to reel under stress, but dynamic growth in digital ad and the Commerce & Ventures segment somewhat cushioned the top line and profitability numbers. PSM expects only slightly positive yoy development in Q4. In this backdrop, management expects to somewhat fall short of its revenue guidance for 2023 and reach only the lower end of its adj. EBITDA target. PSM is currently sailing in a difficult advertising market, as constrained marketing budgets of corporates are impacting TV ad revenues. Moreover, the core German-speaking region continues to face macro headwinds, with no recovery in sight in the near term. While the company’s implementation of cost cutting measures is reassuring, AlsterResearch’s analysts would like to wait and watch for some green shoots on the demand side. AlsterResearch reiterates the HOLD rating at an unchanged PT of EUR 5.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/ProSiebenSat.1%20Media%20SE

In the first nine months of 2023, Formycon generated revenues of EUR 60.2m (9M 2022: EUR 28.2m), driven by payments from Fresenius Kabi related to FYB202, services for FYB201 & FYB203, and to a smaller degree from licensing revenues from FYB201. Due to the contractual framework, contributions from FYB201 are in large parts attributable to the bottom line. This, however, was massively bolstered to EUR 74m by financial accounting effects, which were non-cash and non-operational. While the FY outlook for net income was revised to EUR 50-60m, management continues to expect a negative operating result for the full year, which is due to investments in product development. AlsterResearch updated the model to reflect the accounting effect. Aside from this, the estimates for sales and operating result remain unchanged. Hence, AlsterResearch confirms the PT of EUR 100.00 and reiterates the BUY recommendation. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Formycon%20AG

Friedrich Vorwerk Group (FVG) announced Q3 23 figures showing a return of cost pressure, particularly on material costs, with the gross margin falling from 50.6% in Q2 23 to 40.5% in Q3 23, mainly as a result of a large natural gas project on a former lump sum contract. As a result, the EBIT margin fell from 3.9% in Q2 23 to 2.1% in Q3 23. Despite a high order intake of EUR 733m in Q3 23 due to the completion of the A-North power project, it is doubtful whether FVG will be able to return to the old double-digit EBIT margins quickly. Nevertheless, the very good growth prospects due to the renewal of the infrastructure in Germany remain in the foreground. Due to a more cautious margin outlook, AlsterResearch’s analysts lower their PT to EUR 21.00, but reiterate their BUY rating based on the expected continued strong order intake with better price-cost conditions, which should allow margins to slowly recover. BUY. https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Friedrich%20Vorwerk%20Group%20SE

Yesterday, AlsterResearch held a well-attended earnings call with the management of FCR Immobilien. The management provided insights into the current development and future growth of the company. FCR operates successfully in the lucrative niche of retail properties in German secondary locations, which differs significantly from other real estate sectors, not least due to the significantly lower valuation multiples of the real estate portfolio. This makes FCR much less susceptible to devaluations - on the contrary, index-linked leases could even lead to moderate upwards revisions in the future. Given the continued positive market opportunities, FCR is looking to further expand its real estate portfolio, which is why the company is currently issuing a new bond. AlsterResearch’s analysts see FCR as an ideal vehicle to participate in a lucrative segment of the real estate market and reiterate their BUY recommendation with a price target of EUR 23.50. The previous full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/FCR%20Immobilien%20AG

Photon Energy reported Q3 numbers. The quarter saw a significant decline in revenues, mainly due to a drop in power generation and trading revenues. Despite significantly increased production capacity, power generation revenues fell by 53% due to a sharp drop in prices. Trading revenues saw an almost 80% decline due to excess supply, intense competition, and lower volumes. The gross margin recovered to 61.6% due to an improving mix, but the company reported an EBIT loss related to higher expenses from the Lerta acquisition. Improved working capital management in Q3 released cash, but free cash flow still was negative due to continued capex for the Romanian capacity build-up. Photon Energy is seeking a EUR 15m loan from EBRD to support further projects in Romania. FY23 revenue guidance was further downgraded to EUR 75-80m. The EBITDA guidance of EUR 10m is attainable if sales negotiations for Polish PV projects conclude in Q4 2023. AlsterResearch’s analysts adjust estimates, resulting in a new price target of EUR 3.20, still supporting a BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Photon%20Energy%20NV

Delivery Hero (DH) published its Q3 trading statement, showing a continued recovery of GMV (gross merchandise volume) growth, which increased by 2.1% yoy to EUR 11.69bn, ahead of consensus. Total segment revenues, exluding voucher costs, maintained their pace with 16.2% yoy (at constant currencies, c.c.). From a regional perspective MENA and Europe showed a notable acceleration of c.c. segment revenue growth. The company has updated its outlook for FY23, now expecting GMV growth at the upper end of its of corridor of 5-7% yoy (c.c.). Further, DH confirmed to to generate a positive adjusted EBITDA/GMV margin of over 0.5% on group level. A free cash flow break-even is targeted during H2 2023. DH made a solid overall impression. The GMV forecast was concretized to the upper end of the company outlook and is achievable considering the recent performance. The confirmation of free cash flow and profitability targets should reaffirm investors. With unchanged PT of EUR 52.00, AlsterResearch’s analysts confirm their BUY recommendation. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Delivery%20Hero%20SE

Stabilus reported preliminary results for FY 2023. Revenues were in line with consensus expectations, while adjusted (adj.) EBIT was 4% better, with both coming in as per company guidance. The top line declined 4% yoy in Q4 owing to a high comparable base, and the adj. EBIT fell 13% yoy to EUR 43m amid inflationary pressures and higher overheads. However, sequential improvement in the adj. EBIT margin was reassuring. Management has issued guidance for FY 2024, which includes effects from the consolidation of DESTACO for seven months, assuming the acquisition completes by end-February 2024. Incorporating the FY 2024 guidance, AlsterResearch’s analysts adjust their estimates slightly; their projections already reflect costs and synergies related to the DESTACO acquisition, which AlsterResearch’s experts view as expensive (purchase price of c. EV/EBIT FY 24 of 13x, twice as high as Stabilus’ own trading multiple) and dilutive. The rating remains BUY, and the PT remains unchanged at EUR 70.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Stabilus%20SE

United Internet (UI) reported good results in Q3 23. Revenues were modestly ahead of consensus by 1%, but operating/adjusted (adj.) EBITDA missed by 3% owing to higher-than-expected start-up costs related to the rollout of the 1&1 mobile network. This was mainly due to timing, as management maintained its guidance for 1&1’s mobile network start-up costs at c.-EUR 120m for 2023. Overall, revenue growth was broad-based, and except Consumer Access (which was impacted by 1&1), adj. EBITDA performance was healthy across segments. Meanwhile, fee-based contract additions remained strong at 230k units, reaching 28.19m units by end-Q3. UI is progressing well on its 5G mobile network ambitions. In this regard, the long-term exclusive national roaming partnership (signed in August 2023) of 1&1 Mobilfunk, an indirect subsidiary of UI, with Vodafone, should enhance the group’s 2G, 4G, and 5G coverage and help it access a much larger customer base. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate their BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of EUR 28.00.The full update can be downloaded https://www.research-hub.de/companies/United%20Internet%20AG

Nordex has successfully returned to profitability, with a modestly positive EBITDA of EUR 0.6m in Q2 2023 rising to EUR 48m in Q3 23, driven by stronger growth but slightly below AlsterResearch’s expectations. In particular, an impressive gross profit margin of 22.9% was achieved in Q3 23, up significantly from 16.5% in Q2 23 and 4% in Q3 22. This underlines the effectiveness of Nordex's strategy of passing on volatile material costs to customers. The company's steady growth is reflected in a substantial order backlog of EUR 10.2bn, 35% of which comes from the high-margin service segment. Based on these favorable indicators, AlsterResearch’s analysts expect Nordex's expansion to be sustainable and profitable. AlsterResearch’s experts reiterate their BUY recommendation and slightly adjust their price target to EUR 22.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Nordex%20SE.