NuWays AG: Marley Spoon Group SE | Rating: BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE

Company Name:	Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN:	LU2380748603
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	12.05.2025
Target price:	EUR 2.70
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Further op. improvements // focus on margins; chg.

FY24 sales increased by 0.5% yoy to € 330m carried by the continued execution of the company’s strategic priorities, visible in a rise of order frequency of active subscribers, improved average order volume (+13.5% yoy), slowed customer churn but also the successful integration of Bistro MD. Note: The reported FY24 sales figures shows € 308m as Chefgood has been re-classified as “discontinued operations” as MSG signed an asset sale agreement at the end of Q4.

More importantly, MSG recorded a positive operating EBITDA for the fifth consecutive quarter with € 5.9m, € 9.2m for FY24 (vs. € - 3m in FY23). To a large extent, this is the result of the improved contribution margin (FY24 +3.1pp yoy to 34.7%) driven by the successful shift away from its former discountheavy acquisition strategy but also positive implications from an improving product mix in the US as a result of the bistroMD acquisition and the shift towards an asset light operation in the US. Further, G&A and marketing expenses decreased by 8% for the FY. Chefgood divestment. At the end of Q4, MSG decided to sell its subsidiary Chefgood, the group’s Australian ready-to-heat brand, for AUD 11m/€ 6.3m, implying an EV/sales multiple of 0.3x. Worth highlighting,

Chefgood operated at sub group gross margins (44.6% vs. 49.2%), making this a sensible move. The expected cash inflow (mainly in Q2) coupled with the cash on hand and the expected further operational improvements should be sufficient to bridge the gap to op. cash flow profitability, in our view.

FY25 guidance reflects further profitability focus. Management expects a single-digit % yoy sales decline ttwhile at the same time the contribution margin is expected to improve by >100bps and operating EBITDA to increase by 70-80% yoy (i.e. € 15.6-16.6m).

Strategic shift ongoing. MSG discontinued its brand Dinnerly (meal kit boxes for cost-conscious consumers) in Europe and migrated active customers to Marley Spoon, driving its single brand strategy, which offers simpler processes and synergies in regards to marketing. In Q2, the group plans to launch its ready-to-eat (RTE) offering in Europe. During the mid-term, management highlighted plans to offer additional food and nutrition solutions (e.g. juice packs, healthy snacks, special diet meals) under the Marley Spoon brand, ultimately increasing the value proposition for customers on the platform.

BUY with a new € 2.70 PT (old: € 4.90) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32556.pdf
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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