GBC AG: wallstreet:online AG | Rating: BUY

Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu wallstreet:online AG

Unternehmen: wallstreet:online AG
ISIN: DE000A2GS609

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 38.60 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2021 closed with jump in revenues and significant expansion of fintech business; planned optimisation of brokerage business model with the help of own smartbroker cloud platform should significantly increase growth rate and earnings power; forecast and price target raised; rating Buy

Business development in the past financial year 2021

On 07/03/2022, wallstreet:online AG (wallstreet:online) announced its preliminary business figures for the 2021 financial year. According to these, the group continued its dynamic growth course in the past financial year and recorded another record year. Compared to the previous year, revenues jumped by 82.0% to EUR 51.4 million (previous year: EUR 28.2 million).

At the earnings level, EBITDA adjusted for customer acquisition costs of EUR 13.1 million for Smartbroker increased by 45.0% to EUR 17.5 million (previous year: EUR 12.0 million). Due to considerable investments in the development and expansion of the brokerage business (Smartbroker brand), which, in addition to development costs incurred, primarily affected the marketing and personnel areas, the EBITDA after customer acquisition costs fell significantly to EUR 3.9 million (previous year: EUR 7.5 million) compared to the previous year.

The company thus met both its turnover and earnings guidance. Our turnover forecast (EUR 49.10 million) was slightly exceeded and our earnings estimate (EBITDA: EUR 5.70 million) was not reached due to higher costs for the expansion and development of the brokerage business.

The dynamic increase in group turnover resulted primarily from the significantly higher business volume in the transaction business area. In this business field, segment revenues were massively increased to EUR 15.93 million compared to the previous year (previous year: segment revenue GBCe: EUR 1.20 million). This jump in turnover reflects the successful investments in the expansion of the smart broker client base.

The company was able to more than double the number of securities accounts opened and the assets under management in the brokerage business segment in the past financial year. According to the company, a total of around 246,000 securities accounts were managed as at 31 December 2021, of which around 200,000 were attributable to the smart broker. The neobroker of the wallstreet:online group thus grew by 120,000 securities accounts compared to the previous year, which corresponds to an increase of 140.0%.

Parallel to this, the assets under custody grew significantly by 105% to EUR 8.8 billion (previous year: EUR 4.3 billion). This results in an average custody account volume of approximately EUR 36,000, whereby this figure is significantly higher than the values of well-known competitors. Accordingly, the company has a particularly valuable client base compared to its competitors. In terms of client assets under management, the wallstreet:online group has, thus, according to its own statements, risen to become the largest neobroker operator in Germany within a very short time.

In addition, segment revenues in their traditional business (media/portal business) also increased significantly by 32.0% to EUR 35.47 million (previous year: EUR 26.87 million) compared to the previous year. In our opinion, increased user numbers and advertising revenues contributed to this positive development. Page impressions in the portal business as of 31 December 2021 rose significantly by 16.0% to 3.90 billion (31 December 2020: 3.40 billion) compared to the previous year's reporting date.

Outlook of the wallstreet:online group for the financial year 2022

In view of the dynamic course of business and the record financial year achieved, the company's management expects the growth course to continue in the current financial year 2022. For the current financial year 2022, the company expects sales revenues in a range of EUR 62.0 million to EUR 67.0 million and thus a sales increase of around 25.0%. At the earnings level, an adjusted EBITDA (operational EBITDA) after customer acquisition costs in a range of EUR 10.0 million to EUR 12.0 million should be achieved.

With regard to customer acquisition, the company expects marketing costs of EUR 6.0 million for the current financial period and thus an adjusted EBITDA before customer acquisition costs of EUR 16.0 million to EUR 18.0 million. The significant decrease in customer acquisition costs compared to the previous year is the result of a strategic decision to concentrate all efforts on the planned introduction and implementation (probably in the second half of 2022) of the company's own 'Smartbroker Cloud Platform'. Following the market launch of the new 'Smartbroker 2.0', however, the acquisition of new customers is to be stepped up significantly again, with the company expecting 55,000 new custody account customers in the current financial year. In January and February of this year, more than 13,000 new securities accounts were already opened, which already corresponds to 24.0% of the annual plan.

With the introduction of its own Smartbroker Cloud platform, the company expects a significant improvement in its existing brokerage business model and anticipates positive effects both in terms of revenue and earnings. For example, wallstreet:online assumes that new target groups can be addressed through the implementation of its own IT infrastructure and that customer acquisition costs can be reduced in parallel. In addition, the new IT platform should cover all digital channels and thus significantly increase the number of transactions per custody account and at the same time reduce the costs per transaction execution on the part of the company. The overall increase in the degree of internationalisation should lead to additional cash flows and economies of scale in costs.

GBC assessment and evaluation

Based on the company's positive outlook and the currently very convincing corporate performance, we are raising our previous revenue estimates for the financial years 2022 and 2023. We now expect revenues of EUR 62.33 million for the current financial year (previously: EUR 61.35 million) and revenues of EUR 84.02 million in the following year 2023 (previously: EUR 72.55 million). In the following financial year 2024, sales revenues should increase further to EUR 98.57 million.

In view of the fact that we expect higher expansion and development costs for the brokerage business (Smartbroker) in the future than was previously the case, we have adjusted our previous earnings forecasts for the financial years 2022 and 2023 downwards. For the 2022 and 2023 financial periods, we now expect EBITDA of EUR 10.04 million (previously: EUR 20.02 million) and EUR 14.05 million (previously: EUR 28.15 million), respectively. In the following financial year 2024, we expect EBITDA to increase to EUR 28.73 million.

Overall, we believe that the wallstreet:online group is well positioned in both business segments (Media, Brokerage) to continue to grow very dynamically in the future and to further increase profitability. The planned introduction of our own brokerage platform (Smartbroker 2.0) should significantly improve the current business model in the transaction business and thereby enable significantly stronger growth and a disproportionate increase in earnings through expected economies of scale. In addition, we expect that the increased combination of the synergetic media and brokerage business activities will additionally boost the profitable growth course of the wallstreet:online group.

Based on our new estimates, we have determined a new price target of EUR 38.60 per share within the framework of our DCF valuation model and thus slightly raised our previous price target (previously: EUR 37.70). Our price target increase results primarily from the first-time inclusion of the 2024 financial year in the concrete estimation period and the associated higher starting level for the continuity phase of the valuation model. In view of the current share price level, we continue to assign a Buy rating and see significant upside potential.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/23695.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 30.03.2022 (10:27 Uhr) Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 30.03.2022 (11:00 Uhr) Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2022

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