NuWays AG: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA | Rating: BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name:	Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN:	DE0005493092
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	24.01.2025
Target price:	EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Sahin released following 4 consecutive losses

Topic: Following Tuesday’s loss in the UCL against Bologna, a team that had so far not won a game in the campaign, management decided to part ways with head coach Nuri Sahin.

According to CSO Lars Ricken, management lost faith that Sahin, who just took over from Edin Terzic in Summer 2024, is still able to achieve the sporting objectives for the current season. In our view, this step is totally sensible following 4 consecutive losses to start 2025 as well as only one win from the last nine games and 10th place in the Bundesliga. Even the, until Tuesday, good performances in the UCL could not hide the fact that the team is underperforming this season. Mind you, BVB ranks 4th in squad value  but is currently 7 points behind the crucial 4th place in the league table (UCL qualification), lagging teams like Freiburg, Bremen or Mainz, which in fact have a lower combined squad value. Given this situation, the release of Sahin was unavoidable in order to still achieve the goal of a Top-4 finish.

For the game against Bremen on Saturday, Under-19 coach Mike Tullberg will be in temporarily in charge. We expect a new coach to be announced next week before the away game against Heidenheim. In our view, the team clearly has the strength and quality to achieve this with 48 points still to be awarded.

Yet, qualification for the UCL is at risk, as it does also does not seem like Germany will be awarded an extra spot again given that the association currently ranks 6th (2nd place needed). However, we keep our estimates for FY25/26e unchanged for the time being, given that also the FIFA CWC is offering upside, which we have not accounted for thus far as FIFA has not released prize money details yet.

On a positive note, BVB has secured a spot in the UCL play-off round despite the loss against Bologna. Nonetheless, the likelihood of reaching a Top-8 finish declined to 12% according to Opta based on the results of the other teams. However, with a finish between 9th and 12th, which we regard as highly likely, BVB would face a team from the lower standings in the play-offs, giving the team a good chance of reaching the round of 16.

BUY with an unchanged € 5.50 PT based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31659.pdf
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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