GBC AG: Cenit AG | Rating: BUY

Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno) Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 19.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

- Clear corporate strategy for further growth in place - Strong increase in sales and earnings expected according to “CENIT 2025” - Slight price target increase
 
In the past business year 2022, CENIT AG achieved a significant increase in sales of 11.0% to € 162.15 million (previous year: € 146.07 million) and thus almost compensated for the sales dip of the past two business years. ISR Information Products AG, which was acquired on 31 May 2022, made the main contribution to the sales dynamics achieved. Since becoming part of the CENIT Group, ISR had contributed sales of € 13.57 million. Without inorganic effects, CENIT AG would have reported sales revenues of € 148.58 million and thus an organic sales increase of 1.7 %.  
Broken down by individual types of revenues, it becomes clear that the growth in revenues was achieved exclusively through the 39.9% increase in consulting and service revenues to € 55.72 million (previous year: € 39.82 million). This includes ISR sales as well as catch-up effects after the corona pandemic which had particularly affected this sales area. In contrast, no growth was achieved in sales of third-party software and CENIT software. It should be emphasised that the company has a high proportion of recurring revenues of € 79.68 million, which account for 49.1% of total revenues.
 
Despite the significant increase in revenues, EBIT improved only marginally by 1.1% to € 6.31 million (previous year: € 6.23 million). This is due in particular to increased costs in connection with the ISR acquisition, increased travel and vehicle costs, higher project costs for new software and one-off effects from the reorganisation of the company (approx. € 1.3 million). In addition, lower credits were received from tax incentives for R&D in Germany and France, and finally, the discontinuation of the short-time allowance, which was still around € 1.3 million in the previous year, also made itself felt. The EBIT margin in 2022 was 3.9% (previous year: 4.3%).
 
CENIT AG expects revenues of around € 180 million and an EBIT of more than € 9.5 million for 2023. At the same time, the 'CENIT 2025' agenda was confirmed, in which sales revenues of approximately € 300 million are expected by 2025, accompanied by an increase in the EBIT margin to 8% to 10%. We consider the company's guidance for 2023 to be very realistic, as the first full-year inclusion of ISR and the acquisition of mip in January 2023 can be expected to result in an increase in sales of approximately € 13 million. In addition to the implementation of various organisational and strategic measures, inorganic growth continues to play a very important role in the implementation of 'CENIT 2025'. According to the company's plans, two to three company acquisitions are to be made annually.  
Our revenue and earnings estimates up to the 2025 financial year are based on short- and medium-term corporate guidance. For 2023, we expect revenue of €181.61 million, rising to €233.91 million by 2025. We do not include inorganic growth, which explains the revenue gap to the expected €300 million. Therefore, we expect the EBIT margin to reach the lower half of the expected range by 2025, with an improving EBIT margin trend.  
Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target price of € 19.75 (previously: € 18.20). The price target increase is exclusively a consequence of the first-time inclusion of the 2025 estimates in the concrete estimation period, which provides a higher basis for the continuity phase of the DCF valuation model. An even higher target price increase was countered by the increase in the weighted cost of capital to 8.99% (previously: 8.51%) as a result of the higher risk-free interest rate. We continue to assign the BUY rating.  

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/26743.pdf

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm +++++++++++++++
Date and time of completion of the study: 06.04.2023 (09:58 am) Date and time of first transmission: 06.04.2023 (11:30 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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