GBC AG: Cenit AG | Rating: BUY

Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 18,70 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

9M 2022: Growth course continued; Earnings increase despite special effects; GBC earnings estimates slightly adjusted; Target price: €18.70 (previously: €19.00); BUY rating
 
In the past third quarter of 2022, CENIT AG achieved a significant increase in sales revenues of 31.0 % to € 41.95 million (PY: € 32.04 million), thus significantly accelerating the growth dynamics of the first two quarters of the year. However, a significant part of the growth has an inorganic origin. This is because the acquired ISR Information Products AG (ISR for short) has been contributing to the group's revenues since June 2022. In the third quarter, the inorganic sales contribution amounted to € 5.94 million, which means that CENIT AG achieved organic sales growth of 12.4%. Over the first nine months, the increase in sales was 11.5% to € 115.86 million (previous year: € 103.96 million). Adjusted for ISR sales totalling € 7.97 million, organic growth was 3.8%.  
Separated according to the individual revenue segments, the disproportionate increase in consulting revenues (+35.4%) is again evident, while proprietary software revenues (+6.5%) and third-party software revenues (+1.7%) show a significantly lower growth dynamic. Since the business of the newly acquired ISR consists largely of consulting services, the inorganic effect can be found in particular in the consulting revenues. In this sales segment, CENIT AG is also benefiting from high demand from the aerospace sector and, in principle, from catch-up effects after consulting and service sales had each declined sharply during the corona pandemic.
 
Total revenues of € 69.52 million (previous year: € 68.35 million) for the first nine months of 2022 consist of recurring revenues, which account for 60.0% of the total. There is therefore good planning predictability for the subsequent reporting periods.
 
Compared to the 11.5% increase in sales, CENIT AG reports a disproportionately low increase in EBIT of 6.0% to € 2.58 million (previous year: € 2.44 million) and thus a slightly lower EBIT margin of 2.2% (previous year: 2.3%). Although the newly acquired ISR contributed € 1.00 million to the group EBIT, this was offset by ancillary acquisition costs of € 0.16 million. In addition, CENIT AG had received short-time working benefits of around € 1.3 million in the previous year, which led to a corresponding reduction in personnel expenses. Finally, research allowances were reduced by around € 0.50 million compared to the previous year. Against the background of the above-mentioned effects, their EBIT development can be considered a success.  
CENIT's management has confirmed its guidance for the current business year, subject to the express proviso that the economic and industry-specific conditions do not deteriorate significantly. The company continues to expect consolidated sales of around € 170 million and a consolidated EBIT of around € 9.0 million. Based on this, the company would have to generate revenues of around € 54 million and an EBIT of around € 6.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would be equivalent to a significant increase in revenues and earnings compared to the final quarter of the previous year.
 
However, the Executive Board is confident that it will be able to achieve what it has forecast. On the one hand, the inorganic contributions to turnover and earnings should contribute significantly to the expansion of the key operating figures expected for the fourth quarter. On the other hand, foreseeable new customers could already lead to an increase in proprietary software sales, which should be particularly relevant for the expected increase in earnings.  In our previous forecasts (see study of 04.08.2022) we were slightly above the company's guidance, especially on the earnings side. We are taking the current business development as an opportunity to reduce our earnings forecasts for the current financial year only. We now expect an EBIT of € 8.70 million (previously: € 9.42 million). Our forecasts for the coming financial years remain unchanged.  
Within the framework of the adjusted DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target price of € 18.70 (previously: € 19.00). Although the slight reduction in the target price is slightly due to the lowering of the 2022 earnings forecasts, the main reason for this is the further increase in the risk-free interest rate to 1.50% (previously: 1.25%). We continue to assign a rating of BUY.
 
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/25805.pdf

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm +++++++++++++++
Date (time) of completion: 07/11/2022 (08:07 am) Date (Time) first distribution: 07/11/2022 (09:30 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.