AlsterResearch held an investor roundtable with HelloFresh’s (HF) competitor Marley Spoon. During the well-attended meeting, CEO Fabian Siegel gave valuable insights into the strategy, market prospects and growth drivers, which also account for HelloFresh. A video of the meeting is available at www.research-hub.de/events. The relatively young global meal kit market has shown strong growth in the past decade and is poised to grow further dynamically in the next years. However, the HF stock was punished significantly after the surprising FY23 forecast reduction in November 2023 and has barely recovered since then. In the run-up to the annual report, scheduled for 15 March 2023, analyst comments regarding many uncertainties for 2024 caused additional volatility. Therefore, the company has to make an effort to regain the market’s confidence. To achieve this, HF must deliver in FY24, what has already been promised for Q4 23 - given that the problems at the US production sites have been resolved. AlsterResearch’s analysts confirm their BUY rating with unchanged PT of EUR 28.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/HelloFresh%20SE

Puma’s full Q4 and FY 23 results were in line with the preliminary results announced in January. Full-year revenues had missed consensus by 3%, while EBIT was broadly as expected at the time of the pre-release. An extraordinary impact from the devaluation of the Argentine peso in mid-December and the application of hyperinflationary accounting dragged the Q4 and FY 23 print. However, doubling of free cash flow to EUR 369m in FY 23 and a better-than-expected dividend proposal of EUR 0.82 per share (40% payout; vs consensus of EUR 0.76) came as a relief. Reiterating that consumer demand could be impacted by macro headwinds, geopolitical tensions and currency volatilities, especially in H1, management confirmed its lackluster outlook for FY 24 – sales growth at mid-single-digit % yoy (currency-adjusted [c.a.]) and EBIT of EUR 620-700m (+6% yoy at the mid-point). This suggests that momentum will not pick up anytime soon, as expected earlier. AlsterResearch’s analysts retain their recently lowered forecasts, maintain their PT at EUR 60.00 and confirm their BUY rating on the stock. The full update can be downloaded www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Puma%20SE

Rubean secures a game-changing contract with Global Payments Europe to provide its PhonePOS payment solution to customers in Germany, likely due to the joint venture between Commerzbank and Global Payments. This reaffirms Rubean's software's quality and reliability, already successful in Eastern Europe. The launch, scheduled for H1 '24, will offer PhonePOS via the Global Payments app, potentially reaching 100,000 users. Revenue projections, based on a fixed monthly fee and transaction-based income, suggest transformational growth for Rubean. The partnership with respected brands enhances Rubean's reputation, and the deal is expected to bring substantial financial benefits, prompting AlsterResearch’s analysts to increase their PT to EUR 12.00 (old EUR 8.50) and reaffirm their BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Rubean%20AG

Interactive Strength Inc (TRNR) is a luxury digital fitness company which back in August announced a definitive agreement to acquire all of the assets of CLMBR, Inc., the maker of a connected vertical climber. This acquisition has now closed, strengthening the operations of the now two brands, FORME and CLMBR. With the acquisition of CLMBR and its consumer base, TRNR has also gained access to a B2B channel, which is an important piece of the puzzle for further growth of the enlarged product portfolio. Yesterday, TRNR announced that the initial purchase order of c. 2,150 units is expected to generate in total more than USD 7m of net revenue. However, AlsterResearch’s analysts now also believe that TRNR’s dynamic will kick-in later as assumed and expect a still high burn rate. AlsterResearch’s analysts anticipate the shift of sales volumes and lower their estimates. Therefore, AlsterResearch’s analysts confirm their Spec. BUY rating with a lowered PT of USD 1.50 (old USD 2.30). The latest update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Interactive%20Strength%20Inc

TUI research has revealed that British holidaymakers prioritize packing essentials such as tea bags, kettles and favorite mugs to ensure a nice cuppa while travelling. Emergency supplies such as ketchup, sliced bread and cereals are also popular, along with pot noodles, crisps, cheddar cheese and brown sauce to ensure a healthy British diet abroad. TUI has responded by increasing the free baggage allowance by 5kg (c. 0.8 stones), allowing travelers to take an extra 2,500 tea bags or 154 packets of crisps. Whether TUI will extend these rules to German travelers is uncertain, given the potential demand for more towels and space constraints, particularly when packing numerous pairs of white socks. Until we see more evidence of the impact of the new baggage rules, we leave TUI's estimates and price target unchanged. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/TUI%20AG

Duerr reported prelim. FY23 results with sales coming in the midpoint of the guidance range while adjusted EBIT margin standing at the lower end of the range. In FY23, sales rose 7.3% yoy to EUR 4.63bn, while EBIT before extraordinary effects jumped 20.8% yoy to EUR 280m. The order intake, although in the upper half of the target range (EUR 4.4- 4.8bn), slumped 7.8% yoy primarily due to HOMAG (orders down 18.2% yoy) due to a significant slowdown in demand for woodworking machinery. The company recorded a 10.4% yoy rise in FCF to EUR 129.3m in FY23, the highest figure since 2016, helped by disciplined w/c management aided by easing of the supply chain and prudent capex. As for the outlook, Duerr lowered the FY24 sales growth target to 2-8% growth (vs 5- 10% earlier) while maintaining the EBIT margin before extraordinary effects guidance to between 4.5-6.0%. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate to BUY but lower their PT to EUR 30.00 (old EUR 33.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Duerr%20AG

Rational unveiled its latest innovation, the Rational iHexagon, marking its third product category after the iCombi Pro and iVario Pro. The iHexagon integrates convection heat, steam, and microwaves, offering chefs versatility and efficiency in cooking. With up to 30% time savings, 20% more volume capacity, and top-quality results, it targets high demand settings like canteens and fast food outlets. Positioned as a premium solution amidst competitors like Unox, Rational is likely to aim for a price point exceeding EUR 20K per unit (eAR), making the new iHexagon potentially another cumulative >EUR bn+ blockbuster product. Despite a slow initial uptake, Rational's pull principle strategy is expected to drive gradual market penetration, which is why AlsterResearch’s analysts raise their long-term growth expectations, resulting in a new price target of EUR 750.00 (old EUR 650.00), prompting AlsterResearch’s analysts to reiterate their HOLD rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/RATIONAL%20AG

Pyramid announced mixed preliminary results for FY23. Due to various factors, including the loss of a major US customer and economic uncertainties, revenues were lower than expected (EUR 75m / -18% yoy). However, the company's operating profit (EBITDA) exceeded expectations, reaching EUR 5.4m (eAR EUR 4m), up 29% yoy, demonstrating improved cost management and business model resilience, also visible in stabilizing H2'23 sales. Management remains cautiously optimistic for FY24, forecasting revenues of EUR 78-80m and EBITDA of EUR 5.6-5.8m. The company's ability to navigate challenging markets and generate cash justifies AlsterResearch’s BUY rating, albeit with a revised price target of EUR 2.50 (old EUR 3.00), reflecting adjusted forecasts in line with guidance. An earnings call is scheduled for Feb 27. at 11am CET. Register. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Pyramid%20AG

BASF’s detailed 2023 results were in line with its preliminary numbers. The group continues to face challenges, due to reduced demand, consequent price declines, and increased costs amid a global economic downturn as well as rising energy prices related to the war in Ukraine. While 2023 sales of EUR 68.9bn (-20% yoy) and EBIT before special items (ex-SI) fell short of guidance, consensus, and AlsterResearch forecasts, the slow contraction in Q4 indicates that BASF could return to growth in 2024. This is also reflected in BASF’s outlook guidance for 2024 – EBITDA (ex-SI) is expected to increase to EUR 8.0bn-EUR 8.6bn, up 8.2% yoy at the mid-point (2023: -29% yoy). To alleviate financial pressures, the company has planned to cut costs further (targets annual cost savings of EUR 2.1bn by 2026) and control capex and working capital investments. Strategic moves, including subsidiary sales, are progressing well and management’s commitment to maintain or increase its dividend per share has been reassuring. AlsterResearch’s analysts maintain their BUY rating with an unchanged target price of EUR 58.50, anticipating potential growth in FY 2024 and as the impact of cost-savings initiatives increasingly materialize. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/BASF%20SE

According to preliminary ‘23 numbers, Krones ended the year on a positive note, meeting all its targets. While Q4 ‘23 revenues were in line with consensus, EBITDA and order intake surprised positively, each coming in c. 5-6% ahead of market expectations. Despite long delivery times of c. 70 weeks, demand for Krones’ products stayed resilient (book-to-bill ratio at 1.14x in ‘23), and the company closed the year with a record high backlog of EUR 4.1bn, providing good visibility until mid-‘25. The outlook for ‘24 was also encouraging – revenue growth of 9-13% yoy and EBITDA margin improving to 9.8- 10.3% from 9.7% in 2023, despite likely drag from the consolidation of relatively lower margin Netstal. AlsterResearch’s analysts have a constructive view on Krones as it continues to strengthen its market position as a leading filling and packaging machinery provider and diversify into adjacent sectors through organic expansion and bolt-on M&A. The analysts tweak their estimates for the 2024 guidance (which now includes Netstal) and reiterate the BUY rating with a higher PT of EUR 135.00 (old: EUR 129.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Krones%20AG