Yesterday, HelloFresh (HF) announced that it has met its FY23 outlook, which it had previously downgraded in November. On a preliminary base, HF’s consolidated revenue came in at approx. EUR 7,597m, in line with the prior-year’s figure (FY22: EUR 7,607m). At constant currencies growth was reported with 2.8% yoy. The company’s AEBITDA declined to EUR 448m, after EUR 477m in FY22. While this is not a terrible surprise, HF no longer sees itself in a position to win new customers for its meal kit business after the customer influx during the pandemic. Declining volumes would also be exacerbated by the weak consumer environment. As a consequence, HF delivered a weak 2024 outlook and the withdrawal of its medium-term sales target. Resting on the positive growth prospects for the still young RTE business, the company must show that the targeted efficiency gains are achievable on the scale envisaged. However, AlsterResearch’s analysts have drastically reduced their forecasts, particularly for earnings. AlsterResearch’s analysts downgrade their PT to EUR 16.00 (old: EUR 28.00), which still leaves a sizeable upside after today’s nearly halving of share price. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/HelloFresh%20SE

Brenntag’s Q4 ‘23 results were below consensus and AlsterResearch’s analysts expectations, due to the challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Sales declined by 17% yoy to EUR 3.9bn in Q4, dragged by weaker prices and volumes. However, operating (op.) gross profit declined at a slower 5% yoy and op. EBITA grew 5% yoy on cost containment measures, though these were still below consensus. Consequently, ‘23 op. EBITA of EUR 1.27bn fell slightly short of its EUR 1.3-1.4bn guidance range. Nevertheless, the company delivered well in terms of FCF (+70% yoy to a record high), supported by efficient w/c management. On the shareholders return front, the board has declared a dividend of EUR 2.10/share (+5% yoy) and has completed its EUR 750m share buy-back plan in early March ‘24. Guidance for ‘24 appears cautious, which is understandable, given tough markets. All eyes are now on its strategic transformation, mainly the disentanglement and its progress on its mid-term targets. AlsterResearch’s analysts broadly maintain their estimates and reiterate their BUY rating at an unchanged PT of EUR 90.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Brenntag%20SE

GEA Group reported good 2023 numbers, meeting its set targets. Organic revenues grew at 4% yoy in Q4, taking full-year growth to 8.4% yoy. The company ended the year with a comfortable order backlog of EUR 3.1bn, translating to 58% of 2023 revenues. The adjusted EBITDA margin deteriorated marginally by 20bps yoy in Q4, however, this appears more due to capacity adjustments, but the margin still improved by 62bps yoy to 14.4% for 2023. Furthermore, 2024 guidance is reassuring in the backdrop of multiple macro and geopolitical headwinds. While management expects a slowdown in org. sales growth, it remains committed on delivering on profitability metrics. The company’s EUR 400m share repurchase plan (until 2025) is also progressing well. It has now canceled treasury shares that were held under the 2021/2022 programme. From 2025, GEA plans to cancel EUR 400m worth of treasury shares pertaining to the ongoing buy-back plan, eventually leading to a cancellation of c. EUR 700m worth of shares, indicating management’s confidence in the business. AlsterResearch’s analysts adjust their estimates and reiterate their DCF-backed PT of EUR 44.00 and their BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/GEA%20Group%20AG

The Cicor Group’s FY23 results show a compelling 24.5% yoy growth at the top line to CHF 389.9m, and +27.5% yoy in constant currencies. Organic growth was reported with 11.1%. Alongside the dynamic top line development, Cicor also achieved a disproportionately high increase in operating profit. EBITDA rose by 39.8% to CHF 45.1m, representing a 130bps margin expansion to 11.6%. Introducing its FY2024 guidance, Cicor is expecting growth to continue in 2024, with sales in a bandwidth from CHF460-500m and an EBITDA target range between 10-13%. Rolling the model and adjusting the estimates to reflect the outlook, AlsterResearch increases the PT to CHF 80.00 (old: CHF 78.00). The recommendation remains BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Cicor%20Technologies%20Ltd

At this week's AlsterResearch online hydrogen conference, Enapters' CEO Dr Jürgen Laakmann and CFO Gerrit Kaufhold gave a convincing overview of the growth potential within the hydrogen market and the company's ambitions for the future. The company expects revenues from product sales of EUR 34m in FY24, +106% yoy (FY23 EUR 16.5m excluding the one-off payment of EUR 15m for the exclusive distribution agreement in the US). The company expects to be EBITDA positive already in FY25. AlsterResearch’s analysts are optimistic on Enapter's long-term prospects with production scaling up to mass produce MW-scale multi-core systems, as Siemens Energy has already scaled up to the double MW range with similar but more expensive PEM technology. Based on these expectations and the less costly technology, AlsterResearch reiterates the BUY rating and maintain their price target of EUR 22.50. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Enapter%20AG

Symrise reported ‘23 numbers that were in line with its targets. The company experienced strong momentum across all business units and achieved org. sales growth of 7.9% yoy, meeting its guidance of an “above 7% yoy” increase. However, unfavorable currency movements, inventory write downs, volatility in end markets, and persistent inflation continued to impact the margins, as already warned. Consequently, the adj. EBITDA margin deteriorated by 90bps yoy, though it was within its 19-19.5% guidance range. For ‘24, management expects org. sales growth of 5-7% yoy and an EBITDA margin of c. 20%. The mid-term targets remain unchanged. The bridge to higher margins includes the divestment of lower-margin businesses, further positive effects from the efficiency program, and the inclusion of more businesses with accretive margins. AlsterResearch’s analysts would like to wait for sustained progress on the margin front. Moreover, despite multiple challenges, Symrise remains richly valued. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate their SELL rating with an upwards adj. PT of EUR 90.00 (83.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Symrise%20AG

Siemens Energy IR Manager Tobias Hang presented at the AlsterResearch Pop-up Hydrogen conference. Siemens Energy is a major player in the hydrogen market, focusing on PEM electrolysers integrated into large-scale systems for global customers. Although not yet profitable, Siemens Energy saw EUR 80m of sales and EUR 300m in order entry for electrolysers in 2023, highlighting its rapid growth. With the opening of the Gigawatt electrolyser factory in Berlin and plans to expand capacity to 3GW by 2025, Siemens Energy is poised to meet significant demand. Moreover, Siemens Energy's Gas Services unit, with turbines ready to run on hydrogen, positions the company well for Germany's energy transition. BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Siemens%20Energy%20AG

Redcare Pharmacy (RDC) reported detailed 2023 results, reaching the upper end of its sales and adj. EBITDA margin guidance. Sales saw robust growth of 62% yoy and 49% yoy in Q4 and 2023, respectively, and were in line with its preliminary top line. The inclusion of Swiss MediService from mid-May enhanced the 2023 sales print to a record high of EUR 1.8bn. Organic (org.) growth reached 23% yoy in Q4, driven by high demand for both prescription (Rx) and non-Rx products, which, however, reflects a slightly fading organic growth momentum in Q4 (FY org. sales up 24% yoy). Profitability also reported improvement on well-controlled marketing and sales expenses. The adj. EBITDA margin improved by 3.7ppt yoy to 3.0% in 2023 (Q4: +2.8ppt to 3.1%). 2024 outlook was also promising. Despite positive indicators, concerns arise over decelerating org. growth and gradual improvement in the margin. AlsterResearch’s analysts maintain their SELL rating at a revised price target of EUR 115.00 (old: EUR 120.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Redcare%20Pharmacy%20N.V.

Traton reported better-than-expected results in 2023. Revenues grew by 16% yoy to EUR 46.9bn in 2023 and adj. EBIT stood at EUR 4.0bn, beating consensus estimates by 2% and 3%, respectively, and was ahead of eAR. Revenue growth and the adj. EBIT margin of 8.6% also surpassed the guidance range. However, order intake (-21% yoy in 2023) continued to reel under weakness in demand amid a tough macro environment and with bookings tapering towards normal levels (after an exceptional 2021 and 2022) in addition to cautious order acceptance. Against this backdrop, outlook for 2024 appears optimistic, with the company expecting sales growth of -5% to +10% yoy and an adj. EBIT margin of 8.0%-9.0%. Moreover, Traton has been reporting decent numbers and is focused on managing cost/profitability and net cash flow. Its deleveraging efforts and commitment to paying dividends are reassuring. AlsterResearch’s analysts remain constructive on Traton’s investment case, backed by the brand strength of Navistar, Scania, and MAN in addition to increasing synergies between brands. AlsterResearch’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating on the stock at a revised target price of EUR 35.00 (old: EUR 27.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Traton%20SE

After a series of negative news in the recent months, Bayer’s Q4 and 2023 results brought in some cheer. The company met all its 2023 targets. Its Q4 revenues, adj. EBITDA, and core EPS beat consensus by 2%, 33%, and 27%, respectively, on betterthan-expected results at the Crop Sciences and Consumer Health segments. However, 2024 outlook was muted as expected – sales growth of -1% to +3% yoy (currency and portfolio adj.) and adj. EBITDA declining by 9% to 3% yoy. Over the next 2-3 years, management intends to focus on its pharma pipeline, address litigation issues, and deleverage. Moreover, it has announced a plan to radically overhaul Bayer’s operating model to enhance profitability and flexibility, which is estimated to bring in cost savings of c. EUR 2bn annually by 2026. However, it stated that structural changes remain an option, but “not now”. In AlsterResearch’s view, Bayer’s road to recovery would be bumpy, given uncertainties surrounding its c. 50K pending Roundup/Glyphosate-related litigations. Despite the challenges, AlsterResearch’s analysts maintain their BUY recommendation for investors with a good risk appetite. AlsterResearch’s analysts revise their estimates at a revised PT of EUR 42.00 (old: EUR 51.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Bayer%20AG