Germany is set to approve the EUR 200bn defense fund today, securing military procurement until 2035 (mwb est.) by filling the EUR 19.8bn (2024) annual equipment gap. Rheinmetall has already secured ~50% of the initial EUR 100bn fund, with a strong chance to capture a similar share of future allocations. As Europe consolidates its defense industry and modernizes its military fleets, demand for Rheinmetall’s tanks, ammunition, and drones is accelerating. With a strong order pipeline, the company is poised for tech-like growth in an industry typically known for stability. The market has yet to reflect this upside, and mwb research’s analysts raise their PT to EUR 2,000 (prev. EUR 1,990), maintaining their BUY rating since the likelihood is very high that the German lawmakers will vote for the bill today that would unlock 200bn debt-financed defense spending. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Rheinmetall%20AG

Bechtle AG reported final Q4/FY 24 results in line with its prelims. Revenue declined 4% yoy to EUR 1.82bn in Q4 on the back of a tough economic outlook and reluctance to invest in key markets such as Germany and France, while Q4 EBIT declined 6% yoy to EUR 102m, with the margin narrowing 14bps yoy to 5.6%, largely due to growth investments. Bechtle expects macro uncertainly to extend well into 2025, guiding a weak 2.5% yoy business volume development with flat yoy revenue and EBT growth at the midpoint. However, order backlog remains healthy at EUR 2.56bn (+11% yoy) and cash flow generation was strong. While near-term macro uncertainty persists, Bechtle’s M&A based expansion strategy and increasing demand for digital transformation among SME customers is likely to drive growth beyond 2025. mwb research’s analysts incorporate the FY numbers, the outlook and introduce FY27 estimates. The rating remains BUY with a slightly adjusted PT of EUR 48.00 (old EUR 49.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Bechtle%20AG

Dermapharm Holding SE (DMP) reported resilient Q4 and FY 24 results, supported by solid traction at its Branded Pharma business. Revenues grew 8% yoy in Q4 to EUR 291m and took the full-year top-line to EUR 1.18bn, up 4% yoy. Adj. EBITDA increased by a strong 13% yoy to EUR 75m in Q4. Consequently, FY 24 adj. EBITDA grew 2% yoy to EUR 316m, though the margin narrowed 60bps yoy to 26.7%. FY revenues and adj. EBITDA were broadly in line with consensus. Citing current macro challenges, management has issued a cautious revenue guidance for FY 25, expecting it to come in at EUR 1.16bn-1.20bn (flat yoy at the mid-point). However, adj. EBITDA target of c. EUR 322m-332m (c. +4% yoy), translating to a mid-point margin of 27.7% (+100bps yoy), was reassuring. DMP has been progressing well on its strategic initiatives and broadening its international presence. With DMPs founder Wilhelm Beier now holding an over 70% stake in the company, there is a possibility of the company going private. Any news on this front would be a key monitorable. mwb research’s analysts incorporate the outlook in their assumptions and derive a higher PT of EUR 45.00 (old EUR 41.50) and upgrade from HOLD to BUY. The full update can be downloaded under research-hub.de/companies/Dermapharm%20Holding%20SE

Viromed has reported promising study results for PulmoPlas, its cold atmospheric pressure plasma device for the treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The study, led by Professor Hortense Slevogt of Hannover Medical School and the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, shows that PulmoPlas effectively kills bacteria in the upper and lower respiratory tract within 30-90 seconds with high tolerability and no damage to the respiratory epithelium. If these results are confirmed in a second study, Viromed plans to apply for special approval from the BfArM in summer 2025. The chances of approval look good, given the urgent medical need and the lack of alternatives for the treatment of VAP, which contributes to approximately 15,000 deaths per year in Germany. If approved, PulmoPlas could tap into a EUR 150m market for the treatment and prevention of VAP in Germany alone, making Viromed an attractive acquisition target for large MedTech companies. mwb research’s analysts raise their estimates and target price to EUR 7.40 (before: EUR 6.90) and confirm their Spec. BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Viromed%20Medical%20AG

Hensoldt’s stock surge is unjustified given weaker revenue visibility and slower growth than Rheinmetall. The company targets EUR 5bn revenue by 2030, but its 9% FY24 organic growth sales lags in comparison to Rheinmetall’s 40%. Key defense spending areas - ammunition, drones, and armored vehicles - are driving Rheinmetall’s success, while Hensoldt lacks exposure. Its TRML-4D radar, a key revenue driver in FY 2024, faces limited long-term demand. Beyond 2027, no significant growth catalysts exist before uncertain projects like FCAS in FY2040. With a higher FY 2027 and beyond valuation (31x FY 27 P/E) than Rheinmetall (21x), despite far weaker growth, downside risks dominate. mwb research’s analysts reiterated their SELL rating with a PT of 48.00 – the probability rises for a “sell on good news” tomorrow when the German government will likely pass the EUR 200 bn special fund. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Hensoldt%20AG.

Photon Energy had a strong February, with production at its PV power plants (excluding sold Australian assets) rising 23% yoy, driven by favorable weather, particularly in the Czech Republic, where yields surged over 50% yoy. Despite February typically accounting for just 5% of annual output, the increase provides positive momentum for 2025. The average realized price in Photon Energy’s IPP portfolio rose 26% mom, benefiting from a favorable production mix, higher Hungarian merchant market prices, and more Romanian plants securing production licenses to bypass a price cap. Additionally, Photon Energy expanded its asset management business by securing a contract for a 57 MWp PV plant in Hungary, boosting its O&M footprint by over 15%, while also commissioning 5.1 MWp of new capacity in the country. mwb research’s analysts confirm their Spec. BUY rating with a price target of EUR 1.40, based on DCF. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Photon%20Energy%20NV

Daimler Truck (DTG) announced mixed Q4 results, with a 4% yoy revenue decline to EUR 14.25bn, in line with expectations. However, adj. EBIT fell 29% yoy, missing consensus, while the company delivered a positive surprise in adj. free cash flow, which doubled yoy to EUR 2.5bn. Unit sales continued to decline, mainly due to weak performance in Mercedes-Benz Trucks and Trucks Asia, though Trucks North America and Daimler Buses showed resilience. Macroeconomic pressures, particularly in Europe, along with risks from potential US tariffs and a looming recession, weighed on performance. Despite adjusted estimates, mwb research’s analysts expect a modest recovery in 2025 and a stronger rebound in 2026. However, the analysts remain cautious on profitability relative to consensus expectations, as macro uncertainties such as tariffs could create new pressures. mwb research’s analysts maintain their SELL rating with a raised PT of EUR 34.00 (from EUR 33.00), reflecting persistent risks. The full update is available at https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Daimler%20Truck%20Holding%20AG

Q4 24 sales grew 6% yoy to EUR 1.25bn (+6% yoy in constant currencies), supported by strong holiday season demand and beat consensus by 4%. Gross profit grew 8% yoy to EUR 780m on sourcing efficiency, despite FX and sales mix headwinds. However, EBIT grew at a milder 4% yoy to EUR 126m, with the margin narrowing 20ps yoy to 10.1%, due to higher marketing costs. Sales outlook for FY 25 is lackluster, with revenue guided to remain flat at midpoint (-2% to +2% yoy) amid macro headwinds. However, on profitability front, EBIT is estimated to develop favourably, up 5%-22% yoy, supported by efficiency gains and other strategic investments, though the wide range indicates to lack of visibility. Although mwb research’s analysts acknowledge Hugo’s progress on its ‘CLAIM 5’ strategy and focus on brand building, in mwb research’s view, returning to high sales growth rates could still take a while. The analysts lower their estimates to incorporate the guidance, which gives mwb research’s analysts DCF based PT of EUR 52.00 (old: EUR 65.00). The rating remains BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Hugo%20Boss%20AG

HelloFresh (HF) reported detailed Q4 2024 results in line with its prerelease. Revenues declined 2.7% yoy (-3.3% yoy in constant currency [c.c.]) to EUR 1.81bn amid contrasting trends between ready-to-eat and meal-kit business, with former witnessing robust growth and latter reporting a decline. Adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) beat market estimates by 14%, climbing by 45% yoy to EUR 164m (margin: +3.0ppt to 9.1%), largely from a stable contribution margin of c.27.1% and controlled marketing spend across segments. Despite a good close to FY24, the outlook for FY 25 is disappointing. Management confirmed its recently issued guidance for FY 25 – sales to decline 3% 8% c.c., while AEBITDA to improve by 19% yoy at midpoint. Weak consumer sentiment and macro uncertainty, particularly in North America, its largest region of operation (66% of FY 24 sales), could worsen the situation further. Hence, mwb research’s analysts maintain a cautious stance on HF. However, share prices have plummeted over 20% since its prelims, prompting mwb research to upgrade the stock to BUY from HOLD, confirming PT of EUR 11.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/HelloFresh%20SE

cyan AG reported strong preliminary 2024 results, with revenue increasing 50% yoy to EUR 7.1m, aligning with the upper half of guidance. Growth was driven by an 86% expansion in the subscriber base, while EBITDA losses narrowed significantly from EUR -4.5m to EUR -1.6m to -1.5m, supported by cost optimizations and the sale of the OSS/BSS business. For 2025, cyan targets EUR 8.4 - 9.2m in revenue and break-even EBITDA, supported by continued telecom expansion. While mwb research’s short-term growth expectations have been adjusted due to a mix of factors, such as slower new product ramp-up and customer onboarding delays in the telecom business, the analysts see stronger mid-to-long-term potential, partially offsetting downward revisions in their model. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a revised price target of EUR 3.65 (previously EUR 3.85). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/cyan%20AG