In mwb research’s Initiation on Verbio last week, the analysts explicitly pointed out that the market is recovering due to increasing environmental quotas, stronger expansion into the US market, but also due to the EU's prohibitive measures against China's dumping suppliers. The tariffs, which are expected to have the quickest impact, have now become more specific and will apply to biodiesel from China. They are being launched today with rates ranging from 12.8-36.4%, initially for six months. Chinese suppliers had previously exploited the situation of high prices in the EU to export biodiesel, with exports rising to over 150k tons per month, almost 100% above the average of the last few years before 23. Given the positive impact of the tariffs for local producer, mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a PT of EUR 30.00. On August 20, mwb research will host the second German Select Online Conference, where Verbio will be one of 10 companies to receive first-hand insight and answer questions. Register for free here: https://research-hub.de/events/registration/2024-08-20-14-00/VBK-GR. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Verbio%20SE

In late August, Enapter will publish its H1 results, which are not expected to contain any major surprises. The company is still ramping up production of its large multicore systems. mwb research’s analysts expect Enapter's H1 sales to be in the range of EUR 8-10m, which would represent a doubling yoy. However, as in previous years, significant sales growth is expected primarily in H2. Despite the challenges in the hydrogen market, Enapter achieved a solid order intake of c. EUR 24m in H1, in line with mwb research’s expectations, which would imply a book-to-bill of 2-3x. As a result, the order backlog has increased to over EUR 40m, of which c. EUR 13m is for H2 24, leaving a shortfall of only c. EUR 12m in short-term orders to meet the Company's guidance. Enapter's approach of entering the market with small electrolysers and later introducing larger units is proving successful. mwb research’s analysts maintain their BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 15.00, supported by the company's continued progress in customer acquisition and production expansion. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Enapter%20AG

Mister Spex has launched an intensive restructuring program to improve profitability and sustainable cash generation over the next two years. The initiative is expected to increase EBITDA by more than EUR 20m, mainly in FY25 and beyond, with an expected cash outflow of around EUR 9m, mainly in H2 2024. Key measures include the closure of all international stores and the reduction of personnel expenses. Despite the preliminary Q2/H1 24 results being broadly in line with expectations, the company has revised its guidance for 2024 and now expects net revenues between EUR 210-230m and an adjusted EBITDA margin between +1% and -4%. mwb research’s analysts welcome the move to streamline the business and focus on becoming cash flow positive. With almost EUR 100m of cash on hand, the gross cash position is higher than the current market cap, suggesting that the company is undervalued. The analysts therefore reiterate their BUY rating with a slightly adj. PT of EUR 6.20 (previously EUR 6.50). The full update can be downloaded under www.research-hub.de/companies/Mister%20Spex%20SE

Ceconomy delivered a decent Q3. Sales surged 8.6% yoy, exceeding expectations. Growth was driven by TV sales, especially during the EURO 2024, and robust performance in Western/Southern Europe. The company saw good sales momentum both in Bricks & Mortar (+5.8% yoy) and Online (+9.7% yoy). Due to seasonal patterns, Q3 adj. EBIT was negative with EUR -51m, still marking a yoy improvement by EUR 9m yoy, while being in line with expectations. Ceconomy raised its sales guidance and confirmed its EBIT outlook. Overall, the company is on track to meet its FY targets, leading to an unchanged PT (EUR 3.50) and BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Ceconomy%20AG

Brenntag reported a decent set of numbers in Q2, given the tough conditions in the industrial chemicals market. Revenues, gross profit and op. EBITA in Q2 came broadly in line with consensus. Persistent pricing pressure resulted in a 2% yoy drop in revenues, while higher costs adversely impacted results in both the Specialties and Essentials divisions (op. EBITA was down 13% yoy in each). Management expects a less favorable volume development in H2 and sustained price pressure. Against this backdrop, Brenntag cut its op. EBITA guidance for FY24 to EUR 1.1-1.2bn (vs EUR 1.23-1.43bn earlier), implying a 9% yoy decline at the mid-point, which was somewhat disappointing. Management plans to intensify its efficiency and cost reduction measures in the near term to cushion its profitability. All eyes are now on the progress of its strategic transformation, mainly the disentanglement of segments, and its progress on its mid-term targets (gross profit CAGR of 4-7% and op. EBITA CAGR of 7-9% over 2023-2027). mwb research’s analysts adjust their estimates but reiterate to BUY, albeit with a lower PT of EUR 80.00 (EUR 85.00 previously). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Brenntag%20SE

Cancom reported satisfactory progress in Q2 and H1 2024, with positive development mainly supported by the acquired KBC Group (now CANCOM Austria Group). However, the underlying demand still remains muted, and management expects to see a gradual recovery in H2. Revenues grew 20% yoy in Q2, led by inorganic expansion. It declined c.7% yoy organically. Encouragingly, gross profit grew 31% yoy, with the gross margin improving 3.7ppt yoy to 42.6% on a favorable service business mix. This droves EBITDA higher by 44% yoy to EUR 25m (margin: +110bps yoy to 6.4%). Despite industry challenges, the company expects an acceleration in orders in H2 2024, fuelled by replacement projects for expiring Windows 10 support and implementation of the NIS2 directive. A margin expansion is expected in FY 2024, with the gross and EBIT margins likely to improve on synergies from CANCOM Austria. Consequently, management reiterated its guidance for 2024 for revenues and EBITDA to grow c.23% yoy each. mwb research’s analysts remain optimistic on Cancom’s growth prospects on the back of structural tailwinds and more important issues – such as cybersecurity, IoT, cloud, modern work, and artificial intelligence (AI). The analysts maintain their BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of EUR 37.20. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Cancom%20SE

Friedrich Vorwerk Group (FVG) announced strong Q2 results with sales up 27% yoy to EUR 117m. The company also announced a surprisingly strong EBIT margin of 10.7% (+680bps yoy). The good performance in Q2 was mainly driven by strong sales growth of 156% yoy in the Electricity and of 1070bps EBIT margin increase in the Natural Gas segment. In addition, the previously reported major projects in the Natural Gas segment resulted in a book-to-bill of 2.4x in Q2 and an order backlog of EUR 1.2bn. Based on the positive results, the company has raised its guidance and now expects sales above EUR 410m and an EBITDA margin of c. 13%, which corresponds to an EBIT margin of c. 8.2% (mwb est.). The positive results have led mwb research’s analysts to adjust their est. accordingly. Moreover, the share price has almost doubled since last year's low, confirming their bullish view over time. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a revised PT of EUR 24.00 (old: 22.00) based on the faster margin recovery coupled with the strong order book. The complete analysis is available at https://www.researchhub.de/companies/Friedrich%20Vorwerk%20Group%20SE

HelloFresh’s (HF) revenue growth decelerated in Q2 2024 (+1% yoy in constant currencies; [c.c]) and profitability was weighed down by increased procurement and production costs related to the ramp-up of its ready-to-eat (RTE) business. However, this was on expected lines, as management had already hinted at a slow Q2. That said, costs (particularly marketing) were better than expected, with adjusted EBITDA (AEBITDA) of EUR 146m (-24% yoy) beating consensus by 19% and being ahead of the company’s EUR 100m-EUR 140m guidance range for the quarter. HF’s top-line is slowly stabilizing in the post-pandemic normal and management expects momentum to pick up pace in H2. Therefore, it reiterated its full-year guidance – revenue growth of 2%-8% yoy in c.c. and AEBITDA of EUR 350m-EUR 400m. HF has been making good progress in expanding its RTE business in international markets, while simultaneously undertaking several structural measures to enhance cost efficiencies at its meal-kit business. These should gradually take the company to a sustained profitable growth trajectory; however, the scale and progress in achieving efficiency gains need to be closely monitored. mwb research’s analysts adjust estimates to reflect a more cautious view and reiterate their BUY rating with a new price target of EUR 11.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/HelloFresh%20SE

TUI AG delivered strong FQ3 2024 results, with revenues of EUR 5.8bn (+9% yoy) beating consensus by 2%, driven by a 16% yoy growth in Holiday Experiences, particularly Cruises (+22%), and a solid 9% growth in Markets & Airlines. Underlying EBIT of EUR 232m (+37% yoy) also exceeded expectations by EUR 20m, supported by significant improvements across all segments. Booking trends for Summer 2024 remain robust, with bookings up 6% and ASPs up 3%, while early indications for Winter 2024/25 are promising. Free cash flow improved to EUR 1.24bn, up EUR 80m yoy, with a continued focus on reducing net debt and enhancing the credit rating. mwb research’s analysts maintain their BUY rating with a price target of EUR 16.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/TUI%20AG

Yesterday, Formycon AG published its H1 2024 results with little surprises. As expected, top line decreased due to less development services and the absence of milestone payments. At the same time, the company incurred higher costs, mostly from product development. However, Formycon saw a good market penetration from its Lucentis biosimilar FYB201, which prompted a guidance upgrade last week. In the coming months, the focus will be on approvals for FYB202 and FYB203 and their pending market launches. On unchanged estimates, mwb research’s analysts confirm their PT of EUR 89.00 and reiterate their BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Formycon%20AG