Traton SE announced strong prelim. Q3 24 results with an adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.14bn, up 19% yoy. The adjusted EBIT margin was 9.6% on sales of EUR 11.9bn, up 5% yoy. Net cash flow from operating activities was also impressive at EUR 1.3bn, more than double the yoy figure and ahead of the consensus of EUR 0.8bn. However, this performance was largely driven by catch-up effects following a supply disruption caused by a factory fire in Q2 24. For example, net cash flow from operating activities was negative in Q2 at EUR -374m, which puts the Q3 24 result into perspective. Despite these positive results, ongoing economic challenges, particularly in Europe, continue to pose risks. mwb research’s analysts remain cautious on Traton as they are concerned about a potential economic slowdown in both Europe and the US, but they maintain their BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 34.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Traton%20SE

secunet Security Networks AG reported strong preliminary 9M 2024 results. Revenues increased to EUR 254.8m, up 7% year-on-year, while EBIT grew by 82% to EUR 17.6m, driven by positive momentum in the public sector. Q3 2024 sales rose to EUR 110m, a 26% increase, while EBIT surged to EUR 16m, both significantly exceeding expectations. Alongside the results, the company has revised its full-year revenue forecast upwards to over EUR 400m, with EBIT guidance unchanged at EUR 42m. In the view of mwb research’s analysts, the forecast increase limits downside risks, while the share remains undervalued from a fundamental perspective. After slightly upgrading their estimates, the analysts come to a new PT of EUR 195.00 (EUR 190.00) and reiterate their BUY recommendation. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/secunet%20Security%20Networks%20AG

Deutsche Rohstoff has issued a trading update confirming its FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance. Q3 production remained steady at 14.7k BOEPD, similar to Q1 and Q2 levels. The company has reduced its capital expenditure per well, with Niobrara wells now expected to cost USD 10m and Teapot wells only USD 7m. Nevertheless, Deutsche Rohstoff has increased its FY24 capex budget by c. EUR 20m to EUR 175-180m, driven by an expanded drilling programme and additional infrastructure investments. The US presidential election in 2 weeks is likely to have little impact on the fracking industry. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with an unchanged price target of EUR 55.70. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Deutsche%20Rohstoff%20AG

Friedrich Vorwerk Group (FVG) announced strong preliminary Q3 results with sales of EUR 145m, up 32.4% yoy, and EBITDA of EUR 25.3m, representing a strong margin of 17.4%. These results exceeded expectations and were driven by increased production capacity. FVG reported a weak Q3 order intake of EUR 108.8m, representing a book-to-bill of only 0.8x. On a 9M basis, however, the book-to-bill was 1.35x, coupled with a strong order backlog of around EUR 1.2 bn, ensuring future growth. Based on the prelim results, FVG has raised its guidance for 24 and now expects revenues of EUR 445m at the midpoint and an EBITDA margin of 13-15%. Based on these strong prelim results and the good market conditions, mwb research’s analysts raise their estimates and increase the PT to EUR 36.00 (before 33.00), while maintaining the Buy rating. https://www.researchhub.de/companies/Friedrich%20Vorwerk%20Group%20SE

Amadeus Fire has issued a profit warning due to continued economic pessimism in Germany. The company's operating EBITA for the first nine months of the year decreased by 14.8% yoy to EUR 46.4m, which was below expectations. The decrease was mainly driven by lower temporary and permanent placement revenues in the Staffing segment. In response to the challenging economic environment, Amadeus Fire has revised its full year 2024 operating EBITA guidance to approximately EUR 58m, down from the previously revised guidance of EUR 64-70m. Despite the current headwinds, Amadeus Fire's training segment has performed well, partially offsetting the decline in staffing services. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating as they believe in the long-term growth and cash generation capabilities, but lower their PT from EUR 117.00 to EUR 110.00 as they lower their estimates. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Amadeus%20FiRe%20AG

At the "mwb inspired" event, Philip Reicherstorfer from AUTO1 Group outlined the company's strategic adjustments since the pandemic and its path to profitability. While the digital used car market grew rapidly, esp. during the pandemic, companies faced challenges like high costs and supply chain disruptions, which led to market exits of some competitors. AUTO1 remained stable due to its diversified model and ongoing investments in internalized processes and technologies. The most recent addition is the AI-powered AUTO1 Car Audit Technology (CAT), launched in September 2024, which is expected to further boost efficiency in a future roll-out. AUTO1's innovations and operational focus position the company to achieve profitability this year. mwb research’s analysts confirm their BUY rating at an unchanged price target of EUR 11.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/AUTO1%20GROUP%20SE

Sartorius reported Q3 2024 numbers. While revenues of EUR 794m (-2% yoy in c.c.) in Q3 missed consensus by 3%, the company fared better in terms of adj. EBITDA, which came 7% ahead of market expectations, as benefits from its efficiency program trickled through. Positively, order intake was 7% ahead amid gradually improving demand for consumables. However, the equipment business still remains soft, and management reiterated its tepid guidance for the full year, expecting revenues to remain flat yoy (+/- low-single-digit %) and the underlying EBITDA margin to come in at c.27%-29%. Moreover, long-term growth targets of more than 10% top-line growth remain ambitious, with significant risks involved in achieving the necessary sales acceleration to meet 2028 projections. Against this backdrop, mwb research’s analysts believe that the current valuation, with elevated P/E of 77x in 2025 appears expensive. Therefore mwb research reiterates the price target of EUR 173.00 and the SELL rating. The full update can be downloaded under research-hub.de/companies/Sartorius%20AG

Infineon is set to announce its Q4 results on November 12. Despite concerns about a slowdown in the automotive sector, mwb research believes this might be temporary, as the 1.9% dip in China’s vehicle production appears more like a normalization than a prolonged downturn. Notably, global EV sales surged by 30.5% in September, driven primarily by China, offsetting broader weakness since EVs require significantly more semiconductor content. Meanwhile, the booming demand for AI technologies, reflected in TSMC’s recent record performance, is expected to offset the weakness in other segments, with Infineon expecting AI server revenue to double by FY25, reaching EUR 1bn in 2-3 years. The industrial and IoT sectors are stabilizing at very low levels, while the smartphone and PC sectors are recovering modestly but remain below previous highs. mwb research believes a recovery is anticipated in 2025, with the key factor to watch being the EUR 22bn backlog, which has been decreasing for seven quarters but could signal a rebound. mwb research confidently reiterates their BUY rating with a price target of EUR 40.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Infineon%20Technologies%20AG

At yesterday’s mwb research roundtable, Tim Hameister, CFO of Friedrich Vorwerk (FVG), highlighted the strong German market, driven by growing demand for energy infrastructure. FVG is currently facing production capacity challenges due to high order volumes, with capacity utilization close to 100% in recent years. The main constraint is a shortage of skilled labor, which FVG is addressing through new personnel programs. As a result, the number of employees increased by 7% in the first half of the year, with a focus on recruiting specialists from Eastern Europe and Latin America. In light of FVG's capacity expansion, combined with the strong order situation and margin recovery, the analysts of mwb research have raised their estimates for the next few years. The analysts confirm their BUY rating and raise their PT to EUR 33.00 from EUR 24.00). The complete analysis is available at (https://www.researchhub.de/companies/Friedrich%20Vorwerk%20Group%20SE

Nagarro SE confirmed that it is in discussions regarding a potential take-private transaction, involving certain board members who hold shares in the company. While the talks include the possibility of a public tender offer, the Management Board emphasized that no agreement has been reached, and the outcome remains uncertain. According to Bloomberg, Warburg Pincus, a major private equity firm with over USD 83 billion in assets under management, could be the potential buyer. Nagarro, which focuses on digital product engineering and Generative AI, has seen its valuation decline since 2021, but the potential for going private could allow it to focus on long-term goals. Despite the current challenges, mwb research believes Nagarro offers significant upside potential, especially if the company can reaccelerate its revenue and earnings growth. With its lower market valuation compared to historical levels, the company appears to be an attractive target. The analysts maintain a price target of EUR 102.00 and reaffirm the BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Nagarro%20SE