Circus SE's inaugural 2026 outlook guides for an EBITDA loss of EUR 6m–8m, significantly better than the mwb estimate of -EUR 15.4m, which confirms strong cost control. While the revenue forecast of EUR 44m–55m (based on existing customers) falls short of mwb's EUR 80.4m, it reflects a disciplined, risk-averse approach prioritizing value maximization from current contracts and accelerating the transition to the high-margin, value-adding Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model. The company could proactively seek additional capital to potentially accelerate growth and pursue targets beyond the guidance. As the figures confirm the commercial rollout of the CA-1 and initial contributions from the CA-M, we confirm our BUY rating, adjusting the target price slightly to EUR 46.00 (from EUR 50.00) to account for the roughly six-month shift in the growth trajectory. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/circus-se

tk nucera announced preliminary FY25 results, showing broadly stable revenue and improved EBIT compared with last year. Segment performance highlights the source of weakness: Green Hydrogen (gH2) slowed as legacy mega-projects are now slowly rolling off, and new awards remained limited, while Chlor-Alkali (CA) continued to deliver resilient results. FY26 guidance points to a soft year, reflecting lower backlog and delayed gH2 momentum, prompting us to adjust our estimates accordingly. Despite near-term challenges, we remain confident in the hydrogen market and tk nucera’s positioning. With strong net cash and a stable CA business, the company is well placed to weather the market weakness. Therefore, we reiterate BUY but reduce our PT to EUR 10.00 (before EUR 12.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/thyssenkrupp-nucera-ag-co-kgaa

Bayer’s experimental stroke drug Asundexian delivered positive Phase III results in the OCEANIC-STROKE trial, reducing recurrent ischemic strokes without raising major bleeding risk, a potential breakthrough in secondary stroke prevention. The readout helps restore confidence in Bayer’s cardiovascular pipeline after earlier setbacks and supports management’s ambition to return the Pharmaceuticals division to growth from 2027. While Bayer has previously guided to peak sales above EUR 5bn, we see a more realistic potential of around EUR 3.5bn given pricing and reimbursement headwinds. Nonetheless, with regulatory approvals still pending, launch timing uncertain, and broader group challenges persisting from litigation and debt to mixed trends across end markets, we maintain our HOLD rating but raise our price target to 30.00 (from 27.00), reflecting reduced pipeline risk and improving sentiment toward the pharmaceutical recovery. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/bayer-ag

United Internet announced the intra-group sale of its subsidiary 1&1 Versatel to 1&1 AG for an equity value of EUR 1.3bn and assumed net debt of EUR 950m. The transaction consolidates United Internet’s network infrastructure under 1&1 AG, simplifying the group structure and enhancing strategic alignment between mobile and fixed-line operations. Although the deal has no cash impact or change to FY25 guidance, it sets a high internal valuation benchmark for Versatel and improves transparency across the group. Given the recent share price weakness and clearer structure, we view the announcement as a positive catalyst and upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY, maintaining our EUR 28.00 price target. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/united-internet-ag

CTS Eventim (CTS) reported its Q3 2025 results, with revenues broadly in-line with consensus, while adjusted (adj.) EBITDA posted a solid 6% beat. Its revenues were up 3.5% yoy to EUR 854m led by growth across both the Ticketing and Live Entertainment segments, aided by organic business development and benefitting from inorganic contribution from acquisitions. Its adj. EBITDA grew disproportionally by 13.8% yoy, with the margin expanding 1.5ppt yoy to 16.1% (consensus: 15.1%), largely offsetting the decline seen in H1 (-1.3ppt yoy), on the back of better top-line outcome, coupled with prudent cost management. CTS kept its guidance for FY 2025 unchanged, expecting moderate yoy growth in revenues (9M: +6.0% yoy) and adj. EBITDA (9M: +4.7% yoy), which appears achievable at the current level of performance, as the upcoming Q4 is typically a strong profit contributor. CTS’s market position, its successful international expansion/acquisitions and solid revenue visibility into 2026, place it at a favourable spot. The current valuations remain attractive; therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and our price target of EUR 100.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/cts-eventim-ag-co-kgaa

Yesterday, NORMA Group’s VP of Investor Relations Sebastian Lehmann shared fresh insights at an mwb roundtable on the company’s strategic trajectory, focusing on the planned divestment of its Water Management unit. The sale, valued at USD 1bn, crystallizes hidden value, with expected net proceeds of EUR 620–640m translating to roughly EUR 20 per share. Following the divestment, NORMA will become a more focused pure play, concentrating on Mobility & New Energy and Industrial Applications. The company plans to use proceeds to deleverage, return capital to shareholders, and pursue targeted M&A, providing significant financial firepower. Operationally, NORMA enforces strict order selection, optimizes its global footprint, and focuses on high-margin solutions, supporting sustainable long-term profitability. The roundtable underpins our investment case, and we reiterate our BUY rating with a EUR 20.00 price target. The recording is available here: https://research-hub.de/events/video/2025-11-20-14-00/NOEJ-GR The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/norma-group-se

TKMS’s 08.12 preliminary FY24/25 update should reassure investors. We expect sales of EUR 2.15bn, EBIT 100m, adj. EBIT ~117m (5.4%) and FCF of EUR 557m, with the EBIT gap driven only by spin-off costs that disappear from FY26. Talks with German Naval Yards confirm what we initially flagged in our initiation. The underutilised yard sits next to TKMS’s Kiel site and is unlikely to be sold externally, making TKMS the natural acquirer. A deal would expand capacity, speed up backlog conversion and likely come at a discount. Valuation is high on headlines but justified by visibility. Potential catalyst includes three major tenders (EUR 26bn F127, India’s EUR 8bn P75(I), Canada’s EUR 13bn) that could unlock up to 2bn in advance payments (mwb. est). BUY. PT EUR 100.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tkms-ag-co-kgaa

Deutsche Rohstoff AG’s CMD highlighted strong operational momentum, including major efficiency gains in the Powder River Basin, where drilling costs for 2-mile Niobrara wells have dropped over 20% and well IRRs of ~30% are achievable under conservative assumptions. A key strategic development was Bright Rock’s USD 11m acreage acquisition in Ohio’s Utica/Point Pleasant “oil window,” which the company views as potential Tier-1 inventory capable of generating high IRRs at conservative commodity prices, adding a third core region alongside Wyoming and Colorado. Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance (EUR 170-190m revenues, EUR 115-135m EBITDA) and expects to finish the year at the upper end, with Q4 well starts supporting strong volumes in December and a solid start to 2026. Combined with a disciplined capital strategy, potential dividend and buyback decisions, and a robust outlook even at lower oil prices, these developments underpin a reiterated BUY rating with a EUR 62.00 PT. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/deutsche-rohstoff-ag

SBO reported a soft Q3, reflecting weaker drilling and completion activity, reduced customer capex and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty, which heavily affected Precision Technology (PT). Energy Equipment (EE) remained resilient with an 18% EBITDA margin, and deferred tool sales provide catch-up potential for Q4. Management highlighted encouraging early signs, including increasing inquiries and improving PT order intake, while Q3 represents the O&G downcycle. Diversification continues to gain traction in its diversification fields, namely Flow Control, Geothermal and Additive Manufacturing, supported by strong long-term fundamentals in both Oil & Gas and high-performance industrial markets. While near-term demand remains subdued, SBO’s financial flexibility and early cost adjustments limit downside risk and ensure the company is well positioned once market conditions normalize. We trim estimates, mostly for FY25E, and maintain BUY. New price target EUR 38.50 (old: EUR 40.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/sbo-ag

TAKKT announced a non-cash goodwill impairment of c. EUR 125m due to the continued weak macro environment and particularly weak US market, yet explicitly confirming that FY sales, EBITDA, and cash flow guidance remain unchanged. We view this decisive "big cut" constructively: rather than incremental adjustments seen in the past, this conservative move clears the deck and minimizes future impairment risk. The equity ratio remains comfortable within the 30-60% target range (mwb est. ~50%). Regarding the dividend, the move away from the EUR 0.60 floor was anticipated (mwb est. EUR 0.20) and the stock continues to offer an attractive ~5% yield. We incorporate the charge into our FY25 reported EPS but leave operating estimates largely unchanged. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/takkt-ag