Jam yesterday, and tomorrow, but not today

Hardman & Co Research on Apax Global Alpha (APAX):

Jam yesterday, and tomorrow, but not today

AGA was transparent in that 2024 was a below-average year for the company, with a total NAV return of 0.8% (-3.0% constant currency, including a 4Q total NAV return of 2.6% (-1.8% cc). By comparison, the five-year total NAV CAGR return was 8.3%. Problems in healthcare (no longer a core sector), and one portfolio company in particular, meant the strong average investee company EBITDA growth did not fuel NAV growth. However, the detail in the results bodes well, with i) investee companies delivering mid-teens EBITDA growth, and ii) the stock of 2025 exit-able businesses rising at a time of increased demand (potential exit uplifts). Long-term returns should be helped by accelerating new investment.

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