Switzerland Set to See Sharp Rise in Shareholder Activism
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Dynamics Group AG
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Media release
Switzerland Set to See Sharp Rise in Shareholder Activism
Activists expected to ‘watch and wait’ amid market turmoil, before re-emerging in September Switzerland emerges as a prime activist target
Zurich, 1 July 2025 – Global professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal (“A&M”) has released its latest A&M Activist Alert (AAA) Outlook, the foremost analysis of shareholder activism in Europe, for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The recent market shocks resulting from the US trade tariff policy announcements and global responses has led to a pause in activist campaigning. Campaigns in Europe this May were down 62% to 9 from 24 in the same period in 2024. Proprietary A&M analysis shows that in previous periods of market volatility, there was an immediate decrease in investor activism in Europe, lasting for between four and five months, before activity rebounded over the following five to six months. Activists are therefore expected to watch and wait for an estimated five months from the start of the volatility (April) for greater market certainty and visibility, allowing them to judge the optimum time to invest and develop robust value maximisation proposals. European corporates therefore have until late Q3 or early Q4 to respond to current market challenges and focus on driving improvements in bottom-line results and capital allocation before activists re-emerge. Malcolm McKenzie, Managing Director and Chair of European Corporate Transformation Services said: “European corporates need to combine a robust focus on driving earnings with the development and promotion of a compelling equity story. Only then will shareholder value be maximised and the attention of activists directed elsewhere.” A slowdown in activist activity Despite the recent pause in campaigning, 2025 has still seen notable levels of investor activism in Europe, particularly in the UK, which recorded 21 campaigns between January and May. The UK remains the most targeted country in Europe, with 30% of all campaigns launched in Europe targeting UK companies. However, the number of UK campaigns so far this year has fallen by 22% compared to the same period in 2024. Germany has also seen a dramatic 45% fall in campaigns so far this year, with 11 campaigns between January and May 2025, compared to 20 last year. Campaigns against German corporates represent just 16% of all campaigns versus 23% in all of 2024. Conversely Scandinavia has been more of a target for activists relative to other European countries. A&M market discussions suggest that this is driven by particularly poor shareholder returns in the region in 2024 and a resulting focus on Scandinavian targets in early 2025. Industrials and Consumer Remain Most Exposed Tariffs and other geopolitical challenges that have been the main driver of market volatility in 2025 have led to a marked reduction in activist targeting of the Industrial sector. From accounting for 16% of all European campaigns in 2024, they have accounted for 10% in 2025 to date. Sectors that have maintained relative activist interest include Consumer with 20 campaigns, slightly down from 22 in 2024, given socially focused activism has remained strong. The Energy sector also remained steady with seven campaigns to date this year, reflecting continued engagement on climate and net zero ambitions. Activist demands focused on operational and capital allocation changes, or M&A solutions, have been slowed by market conditions. Environmental and Social campaigns have continued at similar absolute levels to 2024, notably in the Consumer sector, driven by demands for fairer treatment of employees throughout global supply chains, animal welfare and other social concerns. The number of Governance-focused campaigns saw a marked increase this year (up from 31% to 40%), in a reversal of the year-on-year decline seen since 2022. Switzerland in the Spotlight: Activist Investors Set Sights on Key Sectors A&M’s AAA model shows Switzerland, like Germany, is overweight in the industrials sector—the sector most frequently targeted by activists in Europe in recent years. However, due to recent global trade tensions, activism in this sector has temporarily slowed. Activists are expected to refocus on Industrials, as well as Consumer, Healthcare and Technology companies, once visibility improves. While overall activist campaigns in Europe dropped by 20% year-on-year, Switzerland remains firmly in focus. With 17 companies flagged as high-risk for activist targeting over the next 18 months, the country is expected to see the largest relative increase in activism across Europe. Switzerland’s predicted increase in campaigns will be driven by both international activists, especially US-based funds and local investors seeking to unlock value in undervalued firms. Alessandro Farsaci, Manging Director and Head of the Swiss Restructuring and Turnaround Practice said: “Swiss corporates face growing scrutiny from activist investors, particularly in the industrial and consumer sectors. While activism across Europe has seen a temporary slowdown due to market volatility, our analysis anticipates a resurgence after summer 2025. For Switzerland, this means that companies still have the opportunity to proactively improve their operating metrics and adjust their capital allocation strategies before they become the target of activists.” Outlook Outlook: A Temporary Reprieve, But Not a Retreat Activists are expected to return to launching campaigns from September 2025, absent any further market shocks. Discussions with investors indicate that the UK, Germany and Switzerland are seen as prime targets for activists. In the UK, corporates lag their global peers in generating Return on Capital, operating margins and revenue growth, so demands are expected to centre on these areas. We anticipate that the Consumer sector in the UK will be a significant focus of attention. Across Europe, the Industrials, Consumer and Technology sectors will likely see the greatest increases in activist campaigns, focused on a range of performance metrics. The Energy sector will also likely see heightened levels of activism. While we expected campaigns for and against net zero strategies, the balance will continue to swing towards near-term earnings generation and asset efficiency, and away from ESG concerns. .
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Notes to Editors About the AAA Whilst the recent market turmoil and wide fluctuations in stock prices have not provided sufficient confidence for us to predict which individual corporates will be targeted (which we are normally able to do with c.45% predictive accuracy), we have been able to form predictions for the rest of 2025 and into 2026 through detailed corporate performance analysis, plus a focused review of the current activist landscape and their associated intentions. Our corporate analysis analysed the performance (financial, equity story and shareholder returns) of 1,418 corporates headquartered in the U.K., Germany, France, Switzerland, Scandinavia, Benelux, Italy and Spain (those with market capitalisation in excess of US$200m) and compared their individual performances to 4,586 of their global peers. Examples of the performance levels/opportunities identified include weakened returns on capital, operating margins/leverage, market share/revenue protection, cash generation and valuation multiples.
About Alvarez & Marsal Founded in 1983, Alvarez & Marsal is a leading global professional services firm. Renowned for its leadership, action and results, Alvarez & Marsal provides advisory, business performance improvement and turnaround management services, delivering practical solutions to address clients' unique challenges. With a world-wide network of experienced operators, world-class consultants, former regulators and industry authorities, Alvarez & Marsal helps corporates, boards, private equity firms, law firms and government agencies drive transformation, mitigate risk and unlock value at every stage of growth. To learn more, visit: AlvarezandMarsal.com
CONTACT: Nicolas Weidmann Alessandro Farsaci Additional features: File: AlvarezMarsal Shareholder Activism Report Press Release Switzerland E File: A&M Activist Alert Interim Outlook - June 2025
End of Media Release |
2162674 01.07.2025 CET/CEST
