GBC AG: Cogia AG | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: Cogia AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cogia AG
Unternehmen: Cogia AG
ISIN: DE000A3H2226
Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 3.23 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Marcel Schaffer
Focus on organic and dynamic growth. Global cooperations show international demand for Cogia products.
Cogia AG is a provider of AI-based semantic solutions in the field of big data analytics and media monitoring technology with a focus on customer experience in very dynamic markets. The management plans strong organic and inorganic growth. Due to the acquisition of elastic.io, revenues increased by 207.1% to EUR 1.28 million (PY: EUR 0.42 million) in the past fiscal year 2021. EBITDA was improved disproportionately to sales by 347.7% to EUR 0.59 million (PY: EUR 0.13 million), which corresponds to a margin increase from 31.7% (FY 2020) to 46.2% (FY 2021). Due to the high scheduled depreciation on companies of elastic.io (around EUR 1.25 million annualized), EBIT decreased to - EUR 0.81 million (PY: EUR -0.28 million). The net result also amounted to -EUR 0.81 million (previous year: EUR -0.32 million).
The company concludes numerous international contracts and cooperations and, in our opinion, should continue to grow dynamically in the future. For example, Cogia AG was able to win two customers from Sierra Leone - an oil company and a diamond company. In addition, a leading manufacturer of medical products from Brazil is now one of Cogia AG's customers. A strategic partnership has also been entered into with CPIA GmbH, which developed the Openpack platform that connects corrugated cardboard factories, suppliers, software manufacturers, etc. Furthermore, Cogia recently launched Socializer Messenger, a unique communication tool for corporate and government use that meets the highest security requirements. In addition, Cogia was accepted into 500 Global's Accelerate Aichi Landing Pad program through a multi-stage selection process. Through the program, Cogia should be able to achieve good contacts and, possibly, sales success in Japan. To further develop the technology, Cogia GmbH cooperates with Professor Dr. Johannes Busse, an expert in data science, ontology, AI and text mining at the University of Applied Sciences Landshut (HAW Landshut). Overall, Cogia is very active internationally in acquiring new customers. We expect dynamic revenue growth and forecast revenues of EUR 1.96 million in the current fiscal year 2022, followed by EUR 3.63 million in 2023.
Due to the focus on recurring revenues, the business model of Cogia AG should be very scalable. We assume significant margin increases and expect EBITDA of EUR 0.2 million for the current fiscal year 2022 and EUR 0.96 million for 2023. Due to the high goodwill amortization, our EBIT forecast is significantly below EBITDA at EUR -1.02 million for 2022 and EUR -0.26 million for 2023. On a net level, we forecast EUR -1.35 million for the current fiscal year 2022 and EUR -0.6 million for 2023.
Due to the increased risk-free interest rate and the slightly reduced growth expectation, we have reduced our price target based on the DCF model to EUR 3.23 (previously: EUR 3.72) per share. There is still a high upside potential and we assign a Buy rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/25537.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the research report: 29.09.2022 (9:50) German version: 26.09.2022 (15:00)
Date and time of the first distribution of the research report: 29.09.2022 (12:00) German version: 28.09.2022 (10:30)
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
