GBC AG: The NAGA Group AG | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG
Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 11.70 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker
Stronger focus on customer growth, financial flexibility through capital increase, forecasts raised, target price: EUR11.70
As expected, The NAGA Group AG (NAGA for short) has been able to continue its impressive growth course in 2021. This is evident from both the published half-year report 2021 and the preliminary figures for the third quarter 2021 published at the same time. After nine months of 2021, the company reports a doubling of sales revenues to around EUR 40.5 million (9M 2020: EUR 20.0 million). On the one hand, NA-GA is benefiting from a market environment characterised by high volatility. In addition, NAGA's management has made significant investments to increase brand and product awareness, which is reflected in continued customer growth. In the first three quarters, 218,000 new users were added, surpassing the 1.0 million registered account mark. In the first six months, marketing expenses climbed significantly to EUR 10.75 million (H1 2020: EUR 2.88 million).
Despite visibly expanded marketing activities, EBITDA improved to around EUR 8.6 million in the first nine months (9M 2020: EUR 5.8 million) and is thus even significantly above the EBITDA generated in the full year 2020 (2020: EUR 6.57 million). Accordingly, NAGA's management continues to expect an increase in revenues to up to EUR52 million (achievement level after nine months: 77.9%) and EBITDA to up to EUR15 million (achievement level after nine months: 57.3%) in 2021.
First and foremost, NAGA will continue to keep marketing activities high in order to accelerate the growth rate of new customers. For the full year, marketing expenses (including main sponsorship of Sevilla FC) are expected to amount to approximately EUR 22.0 million (2020: EUR 6.6 million). Following the largest capital increase in the company's history, the growth-oriented corporate strategy has a substantial financial cushion in this respect. In September 2021, growth capital of EUR 22.7 million was raised in a capital increase.
Further growth drivers are likely to be the product launches that have already taken place and others that are in the pipeline. With NAGA Pay, for example, a new payment platform has been introduced to the market. NAGA Pay combines an IBAN account, a Visa debit card, a share deposit account and physical crypto-wallets (licensing for crypto-wallets is still pending). With this app, customers should be more integrated into the NAGA product world. In addition, NAGA customers have been able to trade physical shares at a very competitive price of EUR 0.99 per trade since October 2021. Finally, an expansion of the business base is also to take place through geographical expansion. The focus is on Australia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates.
In our view, once the product range is largely developed, NAGA will focus even more on customer growth and thus expand its marketing activities even more than we expect. While we are only making a small forecast adjustment for the current 2020 financial year with estimated sales of EUR 54.06 million (previous estimate: EUR 51.00 million), we expect significantly higher growth rates for the coming financial years. For 2022, we expect revenues of EUR 81.10 million (previously: EUR 66.30 million) and for 2023 of EUR 113.53 million (previously: EUR 66.30 million). In view of higher marketing expenses, the EBITDA margin should be below our previous estimates. In absolute terms, however, EBITDA should increase significantly from 2023 onwards.
The significant adjustment of our revenue estimates and, from 2023, the higher EBITDA estimate, which at the same time forms the basis for the continuity phase of our DCF valuation model, have led to an overall increase in the fair value of the company. Even taking into account the extensive capital increase, we are raising our price target to EUR11.70 (previously: EUR 9.10). We thus continue to give the rating BUY.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/23047.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) Completion: 08/11/21 (08:28 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 08/11/21 (10:30 am)
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