NuWays AG: LAIQON AG | Rating: Kaufen
Original-Research: LAIQON AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to LAIQON AG
Company Name: LAIQON AG
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 19.06.2024
Target price: EUR 8.70
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
High debt-to-equity conversion and successful capital increase
Topic: in May, LAIQON's 20/24 convertible showed a 80% conversion rate and a 5.3% cash capital increase has been placed successfully at a premium. Both capital measures underpin the investor's appetite for LAIQON's equity story.
High debt to equity conversion: the conversion window of the outstanding 20/24 convertible bond (A289BQ) closed on 31th May and 80% of bond holders chose to convert it to equity. This implies the issuance of 618k new shares, but also a small cash outflow (repayment + interest) of € 1.28m (eNuW) on July 17th for the remaining 20%. In our view, the decision of the vast majority of bondholders to convert into equity signals that LAIQON's shares are more attractive than a debt repayment.
Capital increase successfully placed: out of the plannend 1m shares, 928k new shares at € 6.25 per share have been placed to investors, leading to gross proceeds of € 5.8m for LAIQON. While 356k new shares (38%) have been subscribed by members of the management and supervisory board, 572k new shares (62%) were subscribed by other existing or new investors. The fact that the subscription price noted a 20% premium to the market price (as of announcement date on 4th May) also underpins the mispricing of LAIQON's shares, in our view.
In sum, both capital measures increase the number of shares by 8.8% (i.e. 1.546m shares). Thus, we changed our per share estimates accordingly, while our P&L forecast remained unchanged. Moreover, this should also slightly improve the net debt position to € 36m per Y/E'24 (vs. € 37m as of Y/E'23).
Looking ahead, FY'24e EBITDA should still remain negative at € -2.2m (eNuW; excluding performance fees), but nevertheless show improvements over last year (€ -4.7m EBITDA). Currently, some of LAIQON's funds are approaching new HWMs increasing the likelihood of performance fees. Thanks to the high fix-cost base of LAIQON's business, FY'25e should see further substantial improvements thanks to 1) sales growth (+19% yoy) driven by the promising Union Investment cooperation and 2) continued OPEX efficiency (eNuW: +2% yoy), leading to an overall positive EBITDA of € 3.4m (eNuW; +5.6m yoy).
Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and keep our fair equity value unchanged, but lower our PT to € 8.70 (old: € 10.00) due to the inreased number of shares
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/30057.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
