GBC AG: UmweltBank AG | Rating: Hold
Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG
Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: Hold
Kursziel: 21.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
H1 2021: Business volume significantly increased, forecasts and target price slightly raised, rating reduced to HOLD after strong share price performance
The increase in business volume, i.e. total assets plus contingent liabilities and other obligations, forecast by the Umweltbank management was impressively confirmed with the presentation of the 2021 half-year figures. Compared to the end of the 2020 financial year, the business volume increased significantly by +14.2% to EUR 6.16 billion (31.12.20: EUR 5.39 billion). The bank had originally anticipated an increase in business volume to EUR 5.8 billion by the end of the 2021 financial year.
The strong growth in the volume of new loans of around EUR 400 million is particularly noteworthy. According to company information, a strong increase in new financing was achieved compared to the same period of the previous year, so that the outstanding loan volume visibly increased to EUR 3.72 billion (31.12.20: EUR 3.50 billion). This has led to a significant increase in the interest, financial and valuation result of 31.2 % to EUR 34.16 million (previous year: EUR 26.03 million). We assume that this is primarily due to a strong increase in net interest income (interest income from lending business less interest expense from deposit business).
The fact that the after-tax result of EUR 14.40 million (previous year: EUR 14.52 million) was only constant despite the significant increase in the income components is attributable to two factors. On the one hand, UmweltBank AG received one-off special income of EUR 4.16 million plus 5 % in the first half of 2020 in the course of a settlement of a legal dispute. In addition, as had been expected in advance, the number of employees was further increased to 278 (previous year: 234), as a result of which personnel expenses and administrative expenses increased signifcantly to a total of EUR 15.82 million (previous year: EUR 12.81 million).
With the publication of the half-year figures, the UmweltBank management has now raised its guidance and expects the business volume to increase to EUR 6.4 billion by the end of the financial year. This should naturally be accompanied by a significant increase in total income, which should receive additional impetus from their success in asset management and the investment business.
Despite the resulting increase in earnings expectations, the management of UmweltBank AG continues to expect earnings before taxes to remain at the previous year's level. This implies that the higher earnings will be used for investments in personnel, administration and IT, which will be accompanied by higher costs. This was already visible in the development of the first half of 2021, where a constant development was reported for the net profit for the period despite a significant increase in revenues.
In our forecasts (see research study Anno of July 13, 2021) we had already assumed rising sales and a stable development of the after-tax result. However, based on the 2021 half-year figures, it is apparent that at least our top-line forecasts are too low. We are therefore raising both our estimates for net interest income and our forecasts for other income.
Within the framework of our valuation model according to residual income, we have determined a new fair enterprise value of EUR 651.11 million or EUR 21.00 (previously: EUR 20.73) per share. Compared to our last research study (see study dated 13/07/2021), the share price of UmweltBank AG has increased by 19.6%. Therefore, our model result shows no further upside potential compared to the current share price of EUR21.10, so we downgrade our rating to HOLD (previously: BUY).
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/22933.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion: 24.09.21 (3:10 pm)
Date (time) first distribution: 27.09.21 (09:30 am)
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