GBC AG: UmweltBank AG | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG
Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 14.65 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Preliminary figures 2022: Successful closing in 2022 as expected; financial
years 2023 and 2024 are to be seen as transformation years; initially
significant decline in earnings expected; target price reduced to €14.65;
Rating: BUY
According to preliminary figures, UmweltBank AG succeeded in continuing its
growth course in a generally challenging market environment. The further
increase in the balance sheet total by 1.0 % to € 6.00 billion (31.12.21: €
5.93 billion), which was supported on the assets side by an increase in
environmental loans issued and on the liabilities side by an increase in
customer deposits, is striking.
In the preliminary figures, the interest result is not shown separately.
However, despite the increase in the loan portfolio, we expect a decline in
net interest income. This is due in particular to the continued decline in
the interest margin to 0.93 % (previous year: 1.21 %). After the expiry of
the Corona special conditions for the origin of funds, the general increase
in the interest rate level played an important role in this development.
This is because the interest rate increases in the loan portfolio only take
place after the fixed-interest periods have expired or in the case of new
loans. On the other hand, on the liabilities side, customer deposits have
short maturities and thus react more quickly to interest rate increases.
The fact that the net interest, financial and valuation result nevertheless
increased significantly to € 74.09 million (previous year: € 63.20 million)
is probably primarily due to the net proceeds of approximately € 20 million
from the successful sale of a wind farm.
The second revenue stream communicated in the context of the preliminary
figures, the commission and trading result, was slightly below the previous
year's value at € 9.35 million (previous year: € 9.42 million). The tense
stock market situation of the past financial year is particularly visible
here.
Despite the significant increase in earnings, the pre-tax result of € 39.19
million (previous year: € 38.09 million) is 'only' 2.9 % above the previous
year's value. In October 2022, following the sale of the wind farm,
UmweltBank's management had forecast EBT of approximately € 40 million,
which can be considered largely fulfilled. The disproportionately low
development of earnings is, on the one hand, a consequence of the 15.9 %
increase in personnel expenses to € 19.88 million (previous year: € 17.15
million). This reflects an increase in the workforce on the one hand and
general wage adjustments on the other. In addition, general administrative
expenses, plus other expenses, also rose sharply by 40.1% to € 24.36
million (previous year: € 17.39 million). The introduction of the new core
banking system (migration process), which is currently being implemented,
alone resulted in expenses of around € 3.60 million in the past financial
year. The migration process is also accompanied by a higher level of
personnel commitment, which also explains part of the higher personnel
expenses.
Shortly before the publication of the preliminary figures, UmweltBank AG
published its forecast for the current financial year 2023 on 10 February
2023. Accordingly, the anagement Board expects a pre-tax result of
approximately € 20 million for the current financial year and thus
anticipates a significant decline in earnings. The reasons for this are an
expected decline in net interest income, which is likely to be influenced
by the general rise in interest rates and the deterioration of conditions
in refinancing transactions with the Bundesbank. In addition, customers are
expected to be cautious in the securities business, which is likely to have
a negative impact on the commission and trading result. Finally, declining
income will be offset by rising expenses from the introduction of the new
core banking system.
The resulting decline in income is offset by expected further cost
increases. These are related to the planned further investments in
personnel, i.e. a continuation of the expansion of the workforce, although
less dynamic growth is to be expected here. However, the expenses in
connection with the introduction of the core banking system are likely to
increase particularly strongly. In the 2022 financial year, these amounted
to around € 4 million. An increase to around € 10 million is expected for
2023, before a decline to around € 4 million is anticipated in the coming
2024 financial year. In addition to these costs, the migration process also
ties up personnel capacities. With Atruvia's new system, UmweltBank AG will
offer its customers an improved customer experience, develop new products
and improve internal workflows and processes.
In this respect, the company is undergoing a transformation process in the
financial years 2023 and 2024, at the end of which a modern IT
infrastructure will be in place from 2025 and more employees will be
employed at the new company headquarters 'UmweltHaus'. Finally, from 2025
onwards, significant improvements in earnings and results are to be
achieved, also against the background of the then increasing interest
margin.
We have taken this development into account in our estimates and made an
adjustment to the company guidance for the current financial year 2023. We
have also reduced the estimates for 2024 and now take into account a
sideways development of the interest margin. Furthermore, we conservatively
assume that securities customers will continue to be cautious. We have
taken into account a significant improvement in revenue and earnings
expected from 2025 onwards in the terminal value of our residual income
model.
The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value amounting to €
536.69 million. In view of an outstanding number of shares of 35.66
million, this results in a fair enterprise value per share of € 14.65
(previously: € 16.00). The reduction in the target price is a consequence
of the significantly adjusted estimates for the specific estimation period
2023 and 2024. Based on the current share price of € 12.30 per share, we
continue to assign a BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/26471.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion of the study: 24.02.23 (1:18 pm)
Date (time) first publication: 27.02.23 (10:00 am)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
