GBC AG: UmweltBank AG | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG
Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 13.80 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
H1 2023: Business further expanded, net interest income reduced in line
with expectations; forecast adjusted as project sale does not take place;
price target lowered to €13.80 (previously: €14.40); rating: BUY
Despite the current challenging market environment for the banking
industry, UmweltBank AG again increased its business volume, i.e. total
assets plus contingent liabilities and other commitments, by 3.1% to €
6,805 million (31.12.22: € 6,602 million) as of 30.06.2023. On the assets
side, the increase in outstanding environmental loans to € 3,889 million
(31.12.22: € 3,703 million) is likely to have contributed to this
development. At € 397 million (previous year: € 325 million), the volume of
new loans was 22.2 % higher than in the previous year.
However, this positive balance sheet development is contrasted by a decline
in the earnings and profit figures. The decline in the interest, financial
and valuation result to € 25.13 million (previous year: € 29.69 million) is
striking. Although UmweltBank AG does not publish any further details on
the development of earnings, it can be assumed that a decline in the
interest result is responsible for this. The higher interest rate level
continues to cause a stronger increase in interest expenses, as these react
more flexibly to market changes due to the short-term nature of the deposit
business. Furthermore, the expiry of special corona conditions is likely to
have caused an additional increase in interest expenses. UmweltBank’s
management had already anticipated a decline in the interest margin.
The financial years 2023 and 2024 are regarded by UmweltBank AG as a
transformation phase. This includes the conversion to a new core banking
system, the reinforcement of staff, the construction of a new company
headquarters and the fulfilment of regulatory requirements. The migration
of the core banking system in particular is associated with high costs,
which are estimated at around € 10 million for the current financial year
2023. In the first half of 2023, migration costs amounted to € 4.12 million
(previous year: € 0.10 million). This contributed significantly to the
increase in administrative expenses to €14.35 million (previous year: €9.37
million).
Together with the increase in personnel expenses, the cost-income ratio
increased noticeably to 89.6 % (previous year: 59.5 %). Both the decline in
income and the increase in expenses ultimately caused the pre-tax result to
fall to € 3.11 million (previous year: € 14.01 million) and the result for
the period to fall to € 1.49 million (previous year: € 3.11 million).
Shortly before the publication of the 2023 half-year figures, UmweltBank AG
lowered its annual forecast for the current 2023 financial year on 3 August
2013. Up to that point, the bank had expected a pre-tax result of
approximately € 20 million, but only with the help of proceeds from the
sale of investment projects. However, since the sale of projects planned
for the second half of the year has been postponed from the current point
of view, a pre-tax result of only about € 1 million is now expected.
According to the company, the discontinuation of the proceeds from the sale
is mainly responsible for the guidance adjustment. However, the ECB's
further increase in key interest rates to 4.25 % (as of 27 July 2023) is
likely to further burden interest expenses and thus the interest result.
Compared to the lending side, the deposit side has a much shorter duration
and thus reacts more flexibly to interest rate adjustments. For this
reason, the UmweltBank management expects the interest margin to continue
to decline in 2023 and does not expect the trend to reverse until the 2025
financial year.
Our forecasts are based on the new guidance and anticipate a significant
decline in current income (income outside the interest and commission area)
to € 3.28 million (previous estimate: € 20.50 million) for the current
financial year. In addition, we have taken the renewed ECB interest rate
increase as an opportunity to reduce the forecast for net interest income
to € 47.17 million (previous estimate: € 49.81 million). Following this
logic, we have also adjusted the net interest income estimates for the next
two financial years slightly downwards.
The bottom line is that we expect EBT of € 0.97 million for 2023 (previous
estimate: € 20.84 million). We had already taken the significant cost
increase into account in the projections as part of our previous research
study (see study dated 17 July 2023). As in the first six months, the cost
picture of UmweltBank AG will be characterised by rising personnel expenses
on the one hand and expenses in connection with the transformation process
currently underway on the other. As the majority of the expenses for the
migration to the new core banking system will be incurred in the current
financial year, operating costs should decrease in the coming financial
year. The estimated costs for the system migration in 2023 are around € 10
million. In 2024, these should only amount to around € 4 million. In
addition to the expected increase in net interest income, the reduction in
expenses should lead to a noticeable increase in earnings from the coming
financial year onwards.
The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value of € 488.93
million (previously: € 510.49 million). In view of an outstanding number of
shares of 35.44 million, this results in a fair enterprise value per share
of € 13.80 (previously: € 14.40). The reduction in the fair value is
primarily due to the loss of income from the planned sale of the
participation and thus to a significant reduction in earnings for the
current financial year 2023. On the other hand, we have slightly reduced
the interest result for 2024 and 2025. We continue to give the rating BUY.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27533.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion of the study: 14.08.23 (3:25 pm)
Date (time) first publication: 16.08.23 (10:00 am)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
