GBC AG: CENIT AG | Rating: BUY
Original-Research: CENIT AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu CENIT AG
Unternehmen: CENIT AG
ISIN: DE0005407100
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 18.80 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
9M 2021: Constant revenue development, noticeable improvement in earnings; forecasts and target price confirmed; rating: BUY
From the perspective of the first nine months of 2021, CENIT AG achieved an overall constant sales development with a slight decline in sales of -0.4%. After the first quarter was still strongly affected by the pandemic containment measures (Q1 2021: -7.7%), a clear catch-up trend became apparent in the second quarter (Q2 2021: +6.3%). In the third quarter (Q3 2021: +0.8%), the development of turnover remained constant compared to the same period of the previous year.
Separated according to the individual revenue groups, it is evident that only the somewhat higher-margin revenues from proprietary software increased by +2.8%. In contrast, sales of third-party software remained at the previous year's level (+0.4%) and consulting sales were, as expected, still below the previous year's level (-2.7%). The consulting business was affected by project postponements and budget cuts, particularly in the context of the closure measures and thus at the beginning of the business year. However, there is a tendency to catch up here, because in each of the last two quarters an increase in consulting revenues of just over 10% was achieved.
Against the background of the constant sales development, the noticeable EBIT jump to EUR 2.44 million (previous year: EUR 1.67 million) should be emphasised. In addition to the increase in software sales, CENIT AG benefited in particular from a significant increase in their particularly high-margin licence sales. Non-recurring sales of software licences increased by 34.4% to EUR 12.53 million (previous year: EUR 9.33 million), whereas SaaS sales decreased by 3.7% to EUR 68.35 million (previous year: EUR 70.95 million). According to CENIT's management, the strong increase in licence sales is on the one hand due to catch-up effects and on the other hand, an expression of the customers' overall increased willingness to invest.
The positive cash flow development should also be emphasised after nine months of 2021. The operating cash flow of EUR 8.38 million (previous year: EUR 12.32 million) was again significantly above EBIT. Even adjusted for the decline in working capital, CENIT AG would have reported an operating cash flow of EUR 4.75 million (previous year: EUR 6.28 million).
With the publication of the nine-month figures, the company has confirmed the forecast for the current 2021 financial year. Revenues of EUR 152.00 million and an EBIT of EUR 4.90 million are still expected. This means that in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally strong during the year, revenues of around EUR 42.8 million and an EBIT of around EUR 2.5 million should be generated. The last time such figures were achieved in a fourth quarter was before the start of the corona pandemic.
In discussions with the CENIT management we got the impression that the guidance confirmed by the company is a realistic assumption. This is especially true since there are basically positive signals from customers. Even against the background of the current delivery difficulties, a positive demand trend can be observed both from the automotive sector and from the mechanical engineering industry. Airbus, one of CENIT's most important customers, is also giving a positive outlook in view of increasing air travel and the weakness of its competitor Boeing. Furthermore, a total of 600 deliveries are expected by the end of 2021. Finally, the recovery trend that has begun should also continue in the consulting segment. In both Q2 and Q3 2021, consultancy revenues increased by slightly more than 10.0% as a result of the normalisation of the order situation. This should also continue in the fourth quarter of 2021.
In view of the overall promising signals, we are maintaining our previous revenue and earnings forecasts (see research study dated 06.08.2021). Although our revenue and earnings forecast for the current financial year is slightly above the company's guidance, we are still confident that it is well within reach. Due to the expected noticeably higher sales revenues in the coming business years, CENIT AG should successively improve its profitability. An increasing share of proprietary software sales should be an important factor in this.
As we also leave the DCF valuation model unchanged, we confirm our price target of EUR 18.80 and continue to assign a BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/23066.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) of completion: 11/11/2021 (9:25 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 11/11/2021 (10:30 am)
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