Sphene Capital GmbH: Almonty Industries Inc. | Rating: Buy

Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Almonty Industries Inc.

Almonty Recognized by U.S. Congress for Critical Mineral Role

Almonty’s recognition by the U.S. Congress is, in our view, an important endorsement with far-reaching implications. Strategically, it enhances the company’s value proposition as a secure and transparent tungsten supplier. Financially, it may unlock new funding avenues and customer segments. Operationally and reputationally, the company now occupies a more prominent—and scrutinized—position within the broader geopolitical contest over critical raw materials. Nevertheless, these opportunities are accompanied by non-trivial risks. From regulatory obligations to geopolitical exposure, Almonty will need to navigate a complex environment that extends beyond traditional mining industry dynamics. The key to success will be balancing commercial flexibility with strategic alignment—a challenge faced by many resource companies operating at the intersection of industry and international politics. We confirm our Buy rating, and our two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) target price of CAD 5.40 per share, which captures both current and future producing assets—Sangdong (tungsten and molybdenum), Panasqueira, and Los Santos—as well as the discounted value of the Valtreixal development project.

The U.S. House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with China recently emphasized Almonty’s strategic importance for securing critical mineral supply chains, particularly highlighting the company’s Sangdong mine in South Korea—expected to become the largest non-Chinese tungsten production site. Additionally, the Committee welcomed Almonty's plans to redomicile to the United States, which would make it the only U.S.-based commercial producer of tungsten concentrates. This recognition underscores Almonty's potential contribution to U.S. national security interests, especially in the defence sector, as tungsten is classified by the U.S. Geological Survey as a critical mineral essential for aerospace, munitions, and high-performance technologies, given its high-density and heat-resistant properties. In addition, the Committee signalled interest in ongoing engagement, including possible integration into the National Defence Stockpile and collaboration with U.S. defence contractors.