GBC AG: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG | Rating: BUY
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Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
Strong growth in new customers heralds growth phase – sustainable profitability in sight from 2027 Smartbroker Holding AG is an integrated capital market platform provider with two complementary business segments: online brokerage and digital financial media. Under the Smartbroker+ brand, the company operates a multi-award-winning online broker that is the only provider in Germany to combine the service portfolio of a traditional full-service broker with the conditions of a modern neobroker. At the same time, the group operates four of the most widely read financial portals in the German-speaking world: wallstreet-online.de, boersenNews.de, FinanzNachrichten.de, and ARIVA.de. In 2024, these generated a total of around 2.5 billion page views and reached over 4.5 million monthly active users in the current year. This makes Smartbroker one of the largest financial portal operators in Germany. Their hybrid business model combining media and brokerage segments enables high operational efficiency and strong synergy potential. The portals act as the group's own lead channel, significantly reducing customer acquisition costs (CAC) compared to competitors. The expansion of content links between portals and Smartbroker+, such as through the integration of market analyses, news feeds, and community functions directly into the trading platform, also increases user loyalty and transaction frequency. In fiscal year 2024, Smartbroker Holding AG achieved an increase in revenue to €52.48 million (previous year: €46.54 million), driven by the successful migration to Smartbroker+ and increasing trading activity among customers. EBITDA increased significantly to €8.97 million (previous year: €1.35 million), marking the transition from the build-up to the scaling phase. In addition, operating cash flow rose to €9.99 million (previous year: €2.1 million). Following the successful relaunch of Smartbroker+ and the consolidation of the technical infrastructure, 2025 will be marked by accelerated growth and targeted market penetration. In the first half of 2025, Smartbroker Holding AG generated revenue of €32.31 million (previous year: €25.51 million) and EBITDA of €0.06 million (previous year: €2.92 million). We therefore expect revenue to rise to €65.0 million (+23.9%) in the 2025 financial year, driven by strong new customer growth of approximately 80,000 securities accounts and a significant increase in customer deposits to over €850 million. In the short term, operating earnings will continue to be negative as a result of the greatly expanded marketing measures to acquire customers. We forecast EBITDA of €-1.2 million and net income of €-10.06 million. However, these expenses are strategic in nature and aim to build a sustainably profitable customer base with positive lifetime value. From 2026 onwards, the company should enter the earnings phase and generate an estimated EBITDA of €3.83 million before reaching operational break-even in 2027 and a significant increase in earnings, both on an EBITDA basis at €12.76 million and at the level of net income at €8.29 million, and free cash flow of €9.79 million. Smartbroker Holding AG has excellent growth prospects in the medium term. In addition to scaling Smartbroker+, the expansion of heavy trader functions, API connections, interest-bearing accounts and children's accounts, as well as the integration of personalized content, are key growth drivers. Regulatory changes such as the PFOF ban from 2026 are likely to further change the competitive environment in favor of the Smartbroker Group, as its revenue structure is not significantly dependent on order flow remuneration. Based on a DCF model, we have determined a price target of €17.50 per share. Compared to the current price of €11.45 (as of November 6, 2025), there is significant upside potential and we assign a 'BUY' rating.
You can download the research here: 20251118_IC_Smartbroker_en Contact for questions: GBC AG Halderstraße 27 86150 Augsburg 0821 / 241133 0 research@gbc-ag.de ++++++++++++++++ Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung +++++++++++++++ Completion: 18.11.2025 (15:00) First disclosure: 19.11.2025 (11:00)
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2231966 19.11.2025 CET/CEST
